TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,261,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,261,897 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,911 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73ca…8ac1backed No0c1,199,998$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d7…cf9bbacked No1c900,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf920…665fbacked No1c764,765$7,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,79670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No1c759,397$4,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,981.15100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No1c739,838$3,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.19320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed No1c525,252$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,148.12130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed No1c502,882$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.41119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b9…0024backed No1c451,839$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.0780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc87…de14backed No0c450,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b97…a487backed No0c333,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa66c…f291backed No11c309,999$34,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,099.9922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked No0c292,503$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.841010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed No0c283,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbed…bbb9backed No1c264,993$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafa…a39fbacked No1c262,900$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.6750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x332f…1ee8backed No5c261,958$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,799.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1faf…3b02backed No1c249,700$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979b…e47cbacked No0c231,424$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.2750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebba…4de7backed No1c206,680$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67cb…11cdbacked No1c204,600$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7595…50ffbacked No0c204,207$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8735…46e5backed No1c190,727$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.94137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No1c177,928$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.884511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160c…185cbacked No4c163,577$6,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,967.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed No9c159,998$14,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,899.8170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed No17c155,112$26,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,452.2670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6682…e547backed No0c151,926$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x343c…29d0backed No1c134,583$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e34…b86fbacked No7c131,405$9,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,198.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1e…ccb0backed No2c125,726$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.6760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1488…e07bbacked No0c112,383$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4755…6d6cbacked No1c109,371$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-63.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No1c100,067$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.73140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b8…7271backed No1c100,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No2c100,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f33…56a3backed No0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f23…b36ebacked No1c99,915$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.79110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8049…8f36backed No0c99,203$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5817…8988backed No1c97,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878e…a074backed No6c96,859$5,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,744.691216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd2…1c35backed No1c95,963$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.8590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d0…593dbacked No4c95,391$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe788…736bbacked No1c94,349$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.25120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9106…79abbacked No1c91,927$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d2…b69fbacked No1c90,219$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.3990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No1c83,429$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab0…8b70backed No1c83,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5e…5778backed No1c83,078$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes73c83,077$60,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,261.681266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eff…eddbbacked No0c80,170$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0809…8f39backed No1c80,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed No1c76,870$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.27120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No1c71,151$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.9670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No5c70,839$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.536421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked No1c70,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed No1c69,822$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.7730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No3c67,135$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.97392.6%1 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-93.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked No1c66,953$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.51160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c0c…ccedbacked No0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7117…b331backed No1c66,000$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5c…50ffbacked No0c63,333$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No1c62,700$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…9d93backed No2c60,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No2c59,872$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.083622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71c…20b3backed No0c59,841$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b22…c824backed No8c58,750$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked No3c56,818$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc9…a2d0backed No1c56,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a8…9258backed No1c55,500$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f24…5d90backed No2c54,976$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffc…a6bebacked No0c54,827$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No0c54,220$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.448924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c9…62a0backed No1c53,321$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No1c53,151$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed No6c52,216$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,958.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe1…0981backed No0c51,559$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes79c50,165$39,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,493.512548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cbe…106bbacked No1c50,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…8927backed No0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c0…807abacked No0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72af…b0d2backed No9c50,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No13c50,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,499.98166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd60…fa24backed No0c49,265$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7e…9138backed No1c48,828$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a4a…17afbacked No1c48,200$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82aa…a514backed No0c47,797$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2dd…f73fbacked No1c47,180$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.72100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No9c46,646$4,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,198.17825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd49…0e03backed No1c46,530$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x963a…61c0backed No1c46,188$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5e…4077backed No0c46,167$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60c…92debacked No15c45,786$6,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,859.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked No0c45,102$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7a…1d90backed No1c44,104$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb81f…e36fbacked No0c43,704$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed No3c42,773$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.1660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c42,538$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.54342.9%1 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-96.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a2…bbcebacked No1c41,775$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…f8a9backed No0c40,667$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee28…dfdabacked No1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.