Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb615a52cd114e5aa27d8344ae506a72bea81f6ed13f5915f050b615a193c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,589,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,589,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 11,284,240$32,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,589.9 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b5…a045backed Yes | 0c | 7,971,233$16,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,523.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd481…af35backed Yes | 0c | 5,768,150$5,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,768.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 4,277,594$19,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,359.46 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…45e9backed Yes | 0c | 4,123,271$4,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,123.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 1c | 3,287,365$33,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,933.01 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 0c | 2,999,999$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 0c | 1,999,997$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…f2b6backed Yes | 0c | 1,672,419$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 1,327,885$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705.76 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7001…2ababacked Yes | 2c | 1,244,294$19,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,274.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b22…c824backed Yes | 1c | 1,203,076$8,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,955.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 1c | 1,123,312$13,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,161.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…1f59backed Yes | 0c | 1,100,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,020,848$11,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,614.67 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,009,091$6,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,724.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 1,000,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d750backed Yes | 0c | 990,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked Yes | 1c | 963,957$6,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,983.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 1c | 867,861$8,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,264.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 849,999$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 703,063$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…395cbacked Yes | 0c | 672,520$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 1c | 650,000$4,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,725 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 647,753$7,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,502.11 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…b427backed Yes | 1c | 616,539$8,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,521.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9793…789cbacked Yes | 0c | 612,000$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 608,529$3,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,946.23 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 0c | 607,095$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 0c | 600,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 1c | 550,000$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 1c | 549,889$3,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,583.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 433,423$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.85 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…3f07backed Yes | 1c | 420,000$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,370 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…c92bbacked Yes | 1c | 407,836$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed Yes | 1c | 400,000$4,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,450 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 1c | 343,167$3,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,322.74 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…97babacked Yes | 0c | 338,992$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…736bbacked Yes | 0c | 333,150$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.07 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…c96fbacked Yes | 0c | 325,000$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 321,271$3,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,731.29 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8146…459cbacked Yes | 0c | 321,000$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fd…30f0backed Yes | 1c | 318,445$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked Yes | 0c | 298,080$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 1c | 291,983$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.25 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878e…a074backed Yes | 1c | 289,517$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes | 0c | 270,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…4077backed Yes | 0c | 269,540$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…aab9backed Yes | 0c | 266,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…665fbacked Yes | 0c | 250,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 1c | 245,999$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90a…9343backed Yes | 0c | 240,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 0c | 230,697$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed Yes | 1c | 225,760$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…5bdcbacked Yes | 0c | 218,840$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…869ebacked Yes | 0c | 216,577$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…3581backed Yes | 0c | 212,210$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.42 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 1c | 210,000$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…2f86backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…1276backed Yes | 1c | 200,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…5d25backed Yes | 0c | 195,635$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…d389backed Yes | 0c | 195,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes | 1c | 192,357$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 0c | 170,625$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.31 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…4f89backed Yes | 0c | 170,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…777cbacked Yes | 1c | 169,853$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 0c | 169,637$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…b621backed Yes | 1c | 164,885$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…440ebacked Yes | 1c | 156,490$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…2417backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…bbcebacked Yes | 0c | 149,430$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130a…b382backed Yes | 1c | 147,181$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…96b6backed Yes | 0c | 144,370$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 1c | 140,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d64…738ebacked Yes | 1c | 137,603$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…6364backed Yes | 1c | 133,525$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…0052backed Yes | 0c | 133,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…a603backed Yes | 0c | 125,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 124,501$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.88 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ee…2c4ebacked Yes | 0c | 121,017$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…a39fbacked Yes | 0c | 116,667$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…e328backed Yes | 0c | 113,060$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…f8a9backed Yes | 0c | 110,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…48bdbacked Yes | 1c | 108,408$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…b8fbbacked Yes | 0c | 107,020$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 104,827$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 0c | 100,867$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…6f6cbacked Yes | 1c | 100,331$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…486abacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…7271backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…42d9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…7b9bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…9873backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…a35dbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…2215backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…65adbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.