Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c49a94948e365aa74c09eef54d907b7ca534b243c387c375305d5cdd1afef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,103,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,974,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,103,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,602 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 5,338,703$14,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,783.58 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 2,749,284$9,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,288.37 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…8f36backed Yes | 0c | 2,407,055$8,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,980.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…a39fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,350,496$6,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,995.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…e47cbacked Yes | 0c | 1,300,833$4,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,270 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…4077backed Yes | 1c | 1,222,864$7,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,980.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…899fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,128,504$70,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,210.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,120,014$7,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,815.56 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,005,017$6,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,218.87 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…b057backed Yes | 0c | 786,300$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Yes | 2c | 772,418$15,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,188.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ca…8ac1backed Yes | 0c | 754,443$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 1c | 734,237$9,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,182.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…42e0backed Yes | 0c | 727,008$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9793…789cbacked Yes | 0c | 699,098$2,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,947.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…4930backed Yes | 0c | 615,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…b69fbacked Yes | 1c | 563,296$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,029.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 554,251$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.5 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf8…fb62backed Yes | 1c | 503,646$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,706.22 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…1c50backed Yes | 0c | 495,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 14c | 483,137$69,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,173.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 1c | 456,498$4,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,146.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112b…3997backed Yes | 1c | 444,808$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc413…370abacked Yes | 4c | 424,311$18,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,855.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 8c | 421,658$34,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,893.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b5…a045backed Yes | 1c | 408,571$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,099.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes | 0c | 400,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes | 1c | 375,072$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,205.64 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed Yes | 13c | 361,090$48,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,270.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…e36fbacked Yes | 1c | 358,212$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 1c | 339,909$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,892.32 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 323,547$4,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,372.81 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…d57fbacked Yes | 8c | 304,447$24,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,111.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1270backed Yes | 1c | 300,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…eb12backed Yes | 0c | 290,477$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…f2b6backed Yes | 0c | 287,785$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d10…957cbacked Yes | 3c | 285,162$9,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,811.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 0c | 281,006$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…0216backed Yes | 1c | 274,844$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 7c | 265,847$19,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,156.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 1c | 250,279$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1394…c634backed Yes | 16c | 224,423$36,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,287.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…1f29backed Yes | 0c | 224,198$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 2c | 220,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 9c | 216,319$19,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,358.07 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…e61fbacked Yes | 10c | 214,786$22,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,494.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…2760backed Yes | 2c | 210,175$4,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,333.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e5…3414backed Yes | 1c | 208,394$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc982…044bbacked Yes | 1c | 200,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 2c | 200,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7001…2ababacked Yes | 2c | 200,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 11c | 199,999$22,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,999.94 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8146…459cbacked Yes | 0c | 184,762$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 7c | 179,999$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,599.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…e0cfbacked Yes | 7c | 179,724$13,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,459.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 2c | 179,134$3,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 2c | 171,574$3,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,568.89 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f064backed Yes | 3c | 168,878$4,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,338.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Yes | 4c | 165,786$6,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,578.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f99fbacked Yes | 14c | 162,946$23,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,364.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…3f07backed Yes | 5c | 162,851$7,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,926.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes | 1c | 159,334$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 1c | 158,993$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 1c | 157,910$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…4f89backed Yes | 0c | 157,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…561abacked Yes | 3c | 151,435$5,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,255.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 0c | 151,111$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…aab9backed Yes | 1c | 150,816$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 7c | 150,357$11,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,025 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…bbb9backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…ee23backed Yes | 0c | 149,938$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647f…e7efbacked Yes | 2c | 149,448$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…ec7dbacked Yes | 7c | 145,504$9,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,727.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed Yes | 0c | 140,604$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed Yes | 2c | 137,592$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 10c | 137,253$13,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,816.89 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked Yes | 0c | 133,647$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 2c | 127,615$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff0…2307backed Yes | 8c | 124,656$9,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,725.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 1c | 122,970$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 1c | 122,678$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…77afbacked Yes | 8c | 121,414$10,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,238.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 6c | 120,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Yes | 0c | 118,811$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…0198backed Yes | 4c | 117,872$4,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,890.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceec…4ad9backed Yes | 8c | 117,669$8,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,978.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 1c | 115,572$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…185cbacked Yes | 3c | 114,715$3,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,881.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…2dabbacked Yes | 1c | 113,124$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016b…c8f0backed Yes | 0c | 112,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…3581backed Yes | 0c | 112,340$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.81 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…46e5backed Yes | 1c | 111,200$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddff…52d6backed Yes | 18c | 108,983$19,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,956.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 12c | 106,939$12,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,636.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…1c35backed Yes | 0c | 104,355$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Yes | 9c | 104,178$9,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,290.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…48bdbacked Yes | 5c | 103,624$4,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,977 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…c96fbacked Yes | 0c | 101,400$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4e…1370backed Yes | 7c | 100,591$7,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,341.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…486abacked Yes | 0c | 100,001$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.