TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,972,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,308,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,972,057 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c23,446,791$74,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,578.88320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52c2…0556backed Yes1c4,917,386$71,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,338.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c4,370,174$49,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,976.94352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c3,332,938$7,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,658.61160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes0c2,774,504$7,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,143.91130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes0c2,574,377$3,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.381560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xced4…9e7cbacked Yes0c2,325,260$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,828.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c1,880,337$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.34190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Yes1c1,869,661$21,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,651.1170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7428…78b0backed Yes0c1,561,684$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979b…e47cbacked Yes0c1,546,667$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,18050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeac…0216backed Yes0c1,453,732$6,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,145.8740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc60d…2c97backed Yes0c1,451,803$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes0c1,304,024$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,23740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes1c1,299,914$8,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,26790%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c1,278,738$4,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,170.95210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7938…95ccbacked Yes1c1,112,990$7,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,090.9360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…f757backed Yes0c1,053,000$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05370%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes0c1,000,100$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.11020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…42e0backed Yes0c1,000,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d7…cf9bbacked Yes0c1,000,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c22…0960backed Yes0c874,896$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.69130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes1c730,948$5,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,054.7440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6d…f95bbacked Yes0c730,367$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fda…8405backed Yes0c709,460$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.46170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7f…492bbacked Yes0c700,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed7…aab9backed Yes0c607,175$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ec7…f874backed Yes1c599,996$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes1c515,183$7,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,311.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc982…044bbacked Yes0c495,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes0c434,389$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.54120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes1c425,000$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,77570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe15…14c0backed Yes1c408,627$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc51…e75fbacked Yes0c408,299$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed Yes0c400,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd0…53e5backed Yes0c395,067$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c393,052$3,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,961.02170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26af…31d3backed Yes0c359,120$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes1c358,143$4,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,477.6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc32a…2f86backed Yes0c348,730$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c347,921$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.02190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb81f…e36fbacked Yes0c335,667$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fec…013abacked Yes1c300,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd31…d389backed Yes0c275,000$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb2…ea18backed Yes0c262,024$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes1c260,000$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4755…6d6cbacked Yes0c250,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-63.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes0c250,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes1c250,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-71.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45db…8f65backed Yes0c243,442$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.33147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c5…333dbacked Yes0c241,667$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Yes0c231,980$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf80d…0c0cbacked Yes0c225,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c220,000$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4154…7625backed Yes0c212,867$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes0c212,567$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.57345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfafa…a39fbacked Yes0c202,000$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5b…440ebacked Yes0c201,731$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.9230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe033…40a5backed Yes0c200,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd277…d7c2backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c0…807abacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3350…f513backed Yes1c196,258$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7001…2ababacked Yes0c190,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c99…f1e4backed Yes0c178,920$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes0c176,977$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes1c176,737$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.2100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a6…828fbacked Yes0c170,350$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c5…bd24backed Yes0c170,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c167,758$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.87205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c166,896$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.374511.1%5 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…4252backed Yes1c163,076$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes0c158,314$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes0c154,305$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.91150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef6…7547backed Yes0c151,417$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c150,580$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.16280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ee…2c4ebacked Yes0c150,477$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-84.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1255…fa6fbacked Yes0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8049…8f36backed Yes0c146,547$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076b…354cbacked Yes0c145,833$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…77b8backed Yes0c143,500$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b4…b2f6backed Yes0c133,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes0c125,832$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf527…476abacked Yes0c125,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a2…bbcebacked Yes0c124,800$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b6…78d3backed Yes0c119,263$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b057backed Yes0c113,200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…f8a9backed Yes0c113,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbe…60bcbacked Yes0c110,269$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Yes1c106,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes2c105,274$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…76bbbacked Yes0c105,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes0c104,448$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.71180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes1c103,333$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15da…d514backed Yes0c102,405$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.31100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40dd…e214backed Yes0c100,970$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.97140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…b701backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-55.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…486abacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4510…3c34backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.