TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x076b…354c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst La Liga at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+746.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$104.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21.96
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$54.59
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+423.6%+$250.87
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$54.64
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$36.67
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$173.97
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$194.63
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+50.4%+$331.88
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.97
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$19.37
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+38.7%+$14.53
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+289.7%+$311.84
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$472Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+449.1%+$2,118.75
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+65.9%+$47.23
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$39.5
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+519.8%+$368.85
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+345%+$59.61
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+94.5%+$86.91
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+28.9%+$22.19
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$62.41
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$39.62
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$17.96
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$120.96
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+77.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$2,350
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Lakers (-7.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$41.62
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$46.84
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$147.07
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20.05
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$11.96
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$16.55
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$393.44
Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+86.3%+$30.84
Grizzlies vs. Nuggetsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$92.93
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+104.1%+$23.19
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+100%+$189.16
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+122.2%+$33.01
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+141.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$238.52
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$241.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-Inbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$49.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+44.9%+$224.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$18.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$65.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.