TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Nuggets, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$364,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$366,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Grizzlies53c100,047$52,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,101.9972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Nuggets49c63,033$30,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,885.6740446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies53c61,128$32,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,906.8187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Nuggets47c57,300$26,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,93111653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Nuggets47c28,129$13,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,220.7947848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fb…fe50backed Nuggets48c20,833$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0005154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Grizzlies51c20,338$10,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,965.3856646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Grizzlies53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,40045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Grizzlies51c19,786$10,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,602.0837557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets47c16,794$7,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,903.574,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nuggets47c15,059$7,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,077.6592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Grizzlies51c14,500$7,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,1051,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Nuggets48c11,702$5,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,593.3324942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Nuggets47c10,044$4,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,720.693351.5%17 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Grizzlies53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies51c9,819$5,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,781.68,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Nuggets47c9,545$4,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,486.1571547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Nuggets47c8,681$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,08020948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies67c7,300$4,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.423,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Nuggets48c7,156$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4175843.1%25 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Nuggets46c7,029$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.0331644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Grizzlies53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.9858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets46c6,091$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,815.979,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets48c5,729$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.992,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Grizzlies53c5,660$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.371,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Nuggets48c4,522$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.6744352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets49c4,082$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8401,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Grizzlies53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.9927747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets46c3,974$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.042,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Nuggets48c3,760$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.7924045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Grizzlies54c3,259$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.9165750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets47c3,247$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nuggets34c3,128$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.4383039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Grizzlies53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Nuggets47c2,851$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.9795651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Nuggets47c2,660$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nuggets48c2,089$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.7529650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Grizzlies53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Grizzlies54c1,850$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85140041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Grizzlies56c1,783$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.483756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets46c1,682$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.545,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Grizzlies52c1,600$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76633146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets43c1,262$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.073,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies53c1,248$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.213,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Nuggets46c1,149$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.7151146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Nuggets49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Grizzlies53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Grizzlies52c904$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.9285147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd9…ebc3backed Nuggets47c802.47$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.165040%20 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Nuggets47c795.02$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6671449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Grizzlies51c739.83$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.284553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets42c686.35$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.683,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Nuggets46c656.15$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.831,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b54…97b8backed Grizzlies68c613.38$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Grizzlies53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28289050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Grizzlies53c600$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28550653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Grizzlies64c574.08$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1332952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0d…78a5backed Nuggets47c548.09$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.63831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc345…2c35backed Nuggets49c526.48$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010856.5%61 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Grizzlies58c518.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1711044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Grizzlies54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Nuggets47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2358751.7%45 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Grizzlies53c470.64$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.6417845.5%81 W · 97 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d0…f7ebbacked Nuggets46c458.7$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2115119.6%10 W · 41 L-10.1wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Nuggets46c420$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.262744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Nuggets46c420$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.217644.9%79 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Nuggets48c416$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6851451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Grizzlies54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.375147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Grizzlies71c333.7$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.941,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f6…b8c6backed Grizzlies54c314.81$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.814755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Grizzlies51c314.72$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.2140243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Nuggets37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1119430.9%29 W · 65 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Nuggets46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13862347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Nuggets47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14191148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Nuggets47c296.39$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7566646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Grizzlies52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4612536%45 W · 80 L-13.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Nuggets48c281.25$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13532450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Grizzlies54c274.8$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3961957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies47c261.48$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.874,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Grizzlies51c228.43$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.253455.9%19 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Nuggets47c227$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.692,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Grizzlies52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9628929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Grizzlies47c196.78$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2918345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bde…3800backed Grizzlies43c187.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.056755.2%37 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed Grizzlies56c179.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.941060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf828…00a5backed Nuggets38c179.42$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Grizzlies56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5781845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb05c…9bc6backed Nuggets47c175.93$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Nuggets25c171.26$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2424330.5%74 W · 169 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Grizzlies54c161.5$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7920448.5%99 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets31c160.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.23,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Grizzlies53c151.41$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4195452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a4a…2c89backed Nuggets47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Grizzlies64c142$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.732,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec2…c5f1backed Grizzlies69c139.26$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.266053.3%32 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Grizzlies59c138.27$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.271,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.