NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9bd17daa8c21a18dcbb2d4ee82904096c5995457c8858961e129cbdb969cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 53c | 4,680$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.33 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 4,495$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 4,026$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 3,302$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.18 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Over | 51c | 2,681$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.35 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 49c | 2,143$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 55c | 1,746$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.52 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 1,167$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.77 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Over | 53c | 1,047$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.47 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 49c | 694.48$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 34c | 510.59$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.94 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 508.23$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.16 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 58c | 458.62$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 56c | 355.36$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 47c | 208.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 64c | 207.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 23c | 205.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 32c | 205.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Under | 32c | 203.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 38c | 199.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Over | 62c | 161.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 66c | 139.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 48c | 129.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 42c | 129.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…9511backed Under | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 64c | 94.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 80.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 70.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 38c | 61.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 59.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 58c | 57.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 38c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 53c | 47.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 61c | 41.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 48c | 36.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 33.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…b331backed Under | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Under | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 50c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 61c | 18.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.