NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a5990361591c6546b51dbedb5f4e9ebc843c7283ec2bfb24c24267d2f59149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62ba…ef56backed Over | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 28,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,000 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,050 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 9,556$4,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 53c | 8,657$4,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,551.56 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 54c | 6,250$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.99 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 47c | 5,045$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.87 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 4,176$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.26 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 3,354$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 1,657$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.59 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 46c | 1,576$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.03 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,129$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Over | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 53c | 792$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.76 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 756.35$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.43 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…effebacked Over | 51c | 620$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 522.53$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.49 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Over | 18c | 392.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 51c | 392$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 349.21$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.57 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 49c | 299.73$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 48c | 290.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 51c | 208.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 206$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 50c | 168$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 50c | 129.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 53c | 109.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…2c69backed Over | 51c | 98.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 94.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Over | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 54c | 43.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…c5f1backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 59c | 34.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 51c | 32.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 51c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Under | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…a5abbacked Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f2…9671backed Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Under | 72c | 22.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…1879backed Under | 74c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.