NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d4929aa46f60fb7552e7295c520192e3978f463122e645214f1148d18fdf7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869f…7a8bbacked Over | 52c | 10,678$5,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,091.78 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 48c | 6,241$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.68 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 3,491$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 16c | 3,444$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.36 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Over | 47c | 2,861$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.43 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,046$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,268$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.03 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 874.88$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.09 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 53c | 782.31$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.07 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Over | 52c | 769.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.62 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 4c | 753$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 716.28$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.18 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…7b07backed Under | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 9cpaid | +362.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 627.71$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.79 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 5c | 514.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 11c | 490$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 417.21$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Over | 58c | 345.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 322.89$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 43c | 317.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 290.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 259.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 227.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 216.49$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 63c | 173.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…8083backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 28c | 139.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 37c | 128.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 44c | 124$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 40c | 109$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Over | 59c | 103.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Over | 47c | 100.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 65c | 96.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 54c | 88.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…00a5backed Under | 58c | 68.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 33.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Under | 43c | 33.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Under | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 59c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…4bb6backed Under | 68c | 16.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.