TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x24dd…12af

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Weather, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST5846.6%27 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$119.15
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$47.3
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$25.32
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.74
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$18.1
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$106.98
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$27.04
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$203.77
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$83.04
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$49.85
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$342.24
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+85.2%+$82.82
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.56
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+30%+$12.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+42.9%+$11.07
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+25%+$50.31
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+56.7%+$90.39
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+89.7%+$122.19
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+38.9%+$13.23
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on February 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+79.7%+$26.89
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+31.8%+$44.76
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+49.3%+$555.85
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+72.4%+$40.87
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+26.6%+$164.35
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on February 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+28.2%+$394.86
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-41.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.15
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12.09
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.56
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.39
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.39
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$10.1
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.4
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.29
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+58.7%+$10.73
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$19.78
Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$14.19
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$19.71
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$19.84
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$23.65
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.08
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.18
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$21.66
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$8.74
Will Kurt Wedekind win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$17.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Coinbase say "Web3" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$34.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.