Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f52bf9fa3df16b58f63c5e7fb7f06019404cf7af642dbc1a6072cb8035dc7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 23c | 4,234$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 394.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 24c | 332.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 327.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 189.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 132.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 115.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 21c | 96.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 27c | 57.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 77c | 54.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 75c | 53.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 77c | 48.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 38.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…12ebbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 29.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 75c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 78c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 12.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.