Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7a909390ac30576cab7b47a93f7f4e0757a6477fd8ff1a3df319b44232417dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 46c | 2,465$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 1,161$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 69c | 743.91$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c0…9c16backed No | 61c | 360$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed3…2b38backed Yes | 39c | 360$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 255.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 47c | 190$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 164.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 65c | 154.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 126.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 55c | 124.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 10c | 101.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 92.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked No | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 38c | 75.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 71c | 62.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…cb34backed Yes | 57c | 62.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 62.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 49c | 60.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 39c | 59.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 56.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 54c | 55.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 54c | 54.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 62c | 53.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 39c | 47.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 45c | 44.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…0ac2backed No | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 54c | 36.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…41cbbacked No | 54c | 36.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2a…843ebacked No | 53c | 34.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…d06ebacked Yes | 55c | 34.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…2a44backed Yes | 51c | 34.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 57c | 32.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 55c | 29.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…9c1ebacked No | 54c | 28.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed Yes | 74c | 27.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…8094backed Yes | 42c | 26.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc544…3f32backed Yes | 55c | 26.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448c…cb13backed Yes | 47c | 25.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 64c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 45c | 22.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 67c | 22.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed No | 54c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…33f3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.