IPO · resolved market
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ea4b7cf33492834f4a026ffbdfd6724837fa452b07965589cda96d78ae381d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $457,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $435,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 855 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf92b…2344backed Yes | 0c | 56,333$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 59c | 20,210$11,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,327.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…71edbacked Yes | 42c | 19,830$8,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,375.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…33ebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 44c | 7,000$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 27c | 6,668$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,858.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 23c | 6,390$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +124%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…38c0backed Yes | 77c | 4,111$3,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 71c | 3,665$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 49c | 3,359$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bd…9d20backed Yes | 2c | 3,054$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…1d72backed Yes | 44c | 3,020$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…09a8backed Yes | 48c | 3,005$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…471bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,831$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 19c | 2,608$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 32c | 2,492$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 1c | 2,325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 21c | 2,293$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…63a5backed Yes | 32c | 2,114$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…76b0backed Yes | 19c | 1,959$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec6…d8c1backed Yes | 77c | 1,943$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…300dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,787$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…775cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,737$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1284…ea4fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,735$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed No | 20c | 1,714$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +406.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 51c | 1,703$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5494…faacbacked Yes | 67c | 1,652$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,651$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 50c | 1,637$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 24c | 1,539$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 77c | 1,500$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 24c | 1,483$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…0118backed Yes | 58c | 1,476$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,464$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.42 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 64c | 1,422$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…4c87backed Yes | 68c | 1,414$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 29c | 1,397$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…31e3backed Yes | 42c | 1,379$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 26c | 1,346$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 1,343$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…8288backed Yes | 37c | 1,321$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,317$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 78c | 1,300$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 76c | 1,291$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 1,277$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.78 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 21c | 1,274$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 71c | 1,270$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 51c | 1,254$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e6…a355backed Yes | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed No | 60c | 1,238$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +139%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 50c | 1,231$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 51c | 1,223$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,199$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…f5a4backed No | 19c | 1,194$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 22c | 1,179$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 1,148$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 39c | 1,142$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 1,140$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.83 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 76c | 1,124$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 1,123$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 25c | 1,104$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 1,093$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.01 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…fe90backed Yes | 44c | 1,083$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 62c | 1,066$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +268.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 50c | 1,041$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 27c | 1,039$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,029$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 14c | 1,026$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +420.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 20c | 1,024$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…5532backed Yes | 50c | 1,019$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Yes | 60c | 999$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 20c | 976$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…4c93backed Yes | 52c | 968.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…71a3backed Yes | 50c | 954.87$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 55c | 954$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 71c | 943$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed No | 26c | 930$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 75c | 927$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…07dabacked Yes | 47c | 910.58$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 896.13$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 74c | 895$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +230.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 40c | 891$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 74c | 849$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18cc…bdd4backed Yes | 49c | 843.31$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 26c | 839$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +173%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 74c | 825$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…a1d0backed Yes | 30c | 809.42$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 56c | 808.91$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 26c | 807$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +262.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 802.52$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 26c | 802$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 80c | 800$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked Yes | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 74c | 797$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed No | 25c | 795$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 25c | 793$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 75c | 790$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 65c | 778$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 74c | 766$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?this page
- Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Yes won
- Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.