TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0702…d5f9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Music at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$180
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+669.2%+$86.94
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$549
GPT ads by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.24
Grok 5 released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$801Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.7%+$254.08
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$275
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$146
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.9%+$45
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,526Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+28.7%+$438.66
Will Owen Cooper be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$109.78
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$429Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+148.9%+$638.27
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$26.73
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$469.99
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+79.6%+$310.33
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$845Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+84.9%+$717.76
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+300%+$75
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+210.6%+$169.5
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+88.3%+$468.99
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$30
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$318
All 25 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-81.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+203.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon dip to $224 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+566.7%+$170
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.