Movies · resolved market
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea436b7cf344bad2ecd57c1bdbaf1f3d21c3534878d3f24cc07dfd1f01efd19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,177 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 7,837$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.48 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 11c | 5,440$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.14 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…c970backed Yes | 14c | 5,359$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 15c | 5,149$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.6 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…ebc3backed Yes | 13c | 4,935$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,515$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.95 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 8c | 4,069$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…fb1fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,555$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 17c | 3,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.71 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 6c | 2,364$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 9c | 2,315$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.26 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…72acbacked Yes | 13c | 2,033$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 13c | 1,883$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.35 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 16c | 1,636$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 16c | 1,542$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 1,360$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.57 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,359$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 12c | 1,313$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 11c | 1,305$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…6432backed Yes | 11c | 1,212$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 10c | 1,114$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 12c | 1,092$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…422fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,055$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,027$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 14c | 1,025$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 16c | 1,010$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd177…5c66backed Yes | 11c | 1,006$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,006$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…ca83backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +338.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25be…78d9backed Yes | 11c | 995$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…526ebacked Yes | 11c | 972$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 10c | 833.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 11c | 828$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…9d7bbacked Yes | 11c | 818$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 817.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57c…afc6backed Yes | 14c | 809.97$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked Yes | 15c | 799.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 788.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 742.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 8c | 687.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 11c | 681$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc55backed Yes | 8c | 651.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…ec1fbacked Yes | 16c | 639.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 638.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 12c | 586$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 562.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 551.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 16c | 551$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 10c | 505.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3490…381bbacked Yes | 11c | 500.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 12c | 496.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked Yes | 9c | 494$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 486.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 13c | 476.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 13c | 415.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…534fbacked Yes | 12c | 410.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…149bbacked Yes | 16c | 390.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 8c | 363$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70b…de12backed Yes | 10c | 362.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 16c | 360$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c19…94f5backed Yes | 15c | 340$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 14c | 331$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 12c | 330$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d39…9b8dbacked Yes | 8c | 330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 317.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 304.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Yes | 16c | 303.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9018…e3afbacked Yes | 16c | 303.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…9467backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…737ebacked Yes | 17c | 299.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 17c | 298.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 10c | 278.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 278.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 13c | 264.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 6c | 256.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a16…a169backed Yes | 11c | 251.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…2afabacked Yes | 12c | 245.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…33fabacked Yes | 14c | 239.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…5ca4backed Yes | 13c | 225.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…8b32backed Yes | 14c | 212.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…1b38backed Yes | 10c | 209.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…0a14backed Yes | 11c | 208$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…7be8backed Yes | 17c | 206.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…6e39backed Yes | 10c | 205.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 205.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…7d37backed Yes | 10c | 202.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 13c | 195.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 194.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…0d50backed Yes | 15c | 194.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…5620backed Yes | 14c | 181.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…6f5dbacked Yes | 15c | 179.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 13c | 171.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Dear Me - Diane Warren: Relentless win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sweet Dreams of Joy - Viva Verdi win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams - Train Dreams win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.