TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf6da…6f5d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Premier League, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 51 out of 100; worst Tweets at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT4531.1%14 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Cavaliers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.66
Jazz vs. Sunsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Nets vs. Cavaliersbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Magicbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+400%+$40
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+177.8%+$19.56
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Suns vs. Pistonsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Grizzlies vs. Magicbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Jazz vs. Cavaliersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+233.3%+$40.11
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$90.37
Spread: Warriors (-7.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Bucks vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+194.1%+$29.12
76ers vs. Raptorsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Warriorsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20.94
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$92.34
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+81.8%+$36.82
Lakers vs. Spursbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Jazz vs. Thunderbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+560.9%+$84.13
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+118.7%+$20.19
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$17.57
Patriots vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Broncos vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 4 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Capitals vs. Predatorsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Blue Jackets vs. Utahbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+143.9%+$21.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$6.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Northwestern Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.