TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,084,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,281,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,084,542 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 747 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Warriors19c135,828$26,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,022.091,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Warriors20c89,012$17,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,802.3332653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Warriors17c71,609$11,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,822.7744352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe661…e564backed Warriors0c43,235$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Warriors19c40,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,60032540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Warriors49c29,972$14,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,826.148061.3%49 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors21c29,354$6,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,211.741,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9750…263dbacked Warriors26c25,389$6,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,576.131526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors19c24,158$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,589.9374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Warriors21c19,970$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,280.0520744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6101…23bcbacked Warriors19c16,281$3,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,102.395453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Warriors18c14,336$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.4526637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors22c13,819$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.568,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Cavaliers78c13,776$10,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,041.6627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Warriors2c13,750$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.431,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f7…ab52backed Cavaliers79c12,486$9,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.88540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors11c11,423$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.544,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Warriors45c11,098$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,946.2548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Warriors13c10,398$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.8523833.2%79 W · 159 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Warriors11c10,092$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.7411335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Warriors20c10,010$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00218045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Cavaliers80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445f…07d4backed Cavaliers80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0002050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Cavaliers52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.9349244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…2ab2backed Cavaliers80c9,880$7,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+303.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Warriors15c9,636$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.3810158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Warriors19c8,302$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.424438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Warriors22c7,873$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.130157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors15c7,611$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.881,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f8d…a19bbacked Cavaliers75c7,595$5,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.273751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…734dbacked Cavaliers80c7,143$5,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.393669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Warriors20c6,748$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.6872241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Warriors22c6,425$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.733554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Warriors19c6,343$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.663324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors0c6,122$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.828820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Warriors19c6,077$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.511,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Cavaliers80c5,847$4,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.464517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Cavaliers80c5,751$4,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.7350241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Cavaliers80c5,524$4,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.7876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Cavaliers71c5,466$3,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,58212756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Cavaliers80c5,434$4,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.817356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Warriors36c5,389$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.235633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6fd…4c1dbacked Warriors21c5,167$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.051643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Warriors22c5,008$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.841,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Warriors20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Warriors20c4,903$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.561,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc1…cd9fbacked Warriors19c4,800$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Warriors20c4,760$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9521417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Warriors20c4,760$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9524548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Cavaliers80c4,693$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.616261.7%100 W · 62 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Cavaliers78c4,556$3,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.8139349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Warriors21c4,536$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.620843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Warriors16c4,399$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.8838143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Warriors14c4,352$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.0736023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Warriors47c4,301$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.251,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Warriors21c4,265$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.7724937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Cavaliers80c4,152$3,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.753928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6658…8afdbacked Warriors19c4,098$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.585856.9%33 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47dc…96f2backed Cavaliers80c3,987$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.977100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Cavaliers80c3,976$3,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.1418151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Cavaliers79c3,706$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.2447856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cavaliers77c3,570$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.122,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Cavaliers72c3,437$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.1589444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacb…a0e3backed Warriors19c3,410$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.91369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf98a…f376backed Warriors20c3,267$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.32832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors16c3,089$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.73,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Cavaliers80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60023742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Warriors47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.8648845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aab…c4ddbacked Warriors16c2,969$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.547839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Warriors17c2,960$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.3938540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Cavaliers77c2,954$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.73554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Warriors17c2,933$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.7361939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b7…9f3abacked Warriors17c2,861$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ba4…fd40backed Cavaliers80c2,766$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.26628.8%19 W · 47 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Warriors20c2,744$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.7110256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Cavaliers57c2,583$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12235650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Cavaliers80c2,470$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4948859.1%52 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a62…ab67backed Warriors20c2,465$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ad…85f7backed Warriors21c2,268$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.36835.3%24 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e4b…fddebacked Warriors21c2,268$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed Cavaliers80c2,164$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.8813435.8%48 W · 86 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Warriors20c2,156$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.1137355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Warriors21c2,128$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.6336718.5%68 W · 299 L-36.8wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Cavaliers66c2,041$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.5862144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Cavaliers58c2,008$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.7452760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Cavaliers80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4007156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Cavaliers80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40048944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Warriors13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.981,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Warriors11c1,976$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4458740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a70…5882backed Warriors18c1,963$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.76496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-72%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Warriors18c1,940$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.2546847.4%222 W · 246 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…9837backed Warriors18c1,928$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.676625.8%17 W · 49 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-45.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Cavaliers80c1,885$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.034673.9%34 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Cavaliers74c1,871$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.1318147.5%86 W · 95 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Warriors18c1,838$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.691,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors20c1,835$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.964,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0d…7435backed Warriors20c1,804$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.28339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…9afabacked Warriors17c1,776$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.137313.7%10 W · 63 L-11.3wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-61.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Warriors21c1,774$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.1629040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Warriors19c1,773$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.0630947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.