TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Rockets, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,201,769
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,186,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,201,769 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 780 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Kings16c240,000$38,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,599.7648343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rockets17c149,141$25,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,258.751,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Kings16c85,000$13,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,449.7535235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Kings16c70,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,799.9351844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets66c62,989$41,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,280.775,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Kings15c62,921$9,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,483.0916752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets71c41,924$29,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,885.668,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings36c41,867$15,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,791.591,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x087b…fa7cbacked Rockets0c35,310$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…08aabacked Rockets6c30,686$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.995052%26 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings39c27,135$10,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,540.961,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…9ab5backed Kings37c26,901$9,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,903.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa21e…0b18backed Rockets1c26,182$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.631540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Kings16c25,050$4,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,041.9215841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Rockets0c19,888$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8962652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kings43c19,883$8,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,253.863,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings15c19,000$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,074.9647028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8049…1e6cbacked Rockets28c18,769$5,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,344.561631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Rockets66c18,184$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0009857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Kings43c15,903$6,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,100.976540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Rockets45c15,507$6,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,944.4839744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings15c14,745$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,574.261,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Kings45c14,366$6,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,961.1748845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Rockets1c13,333$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings15c13,138$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,175.434,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Rockets73c13,104$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,600.4727865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Kings29c13,006$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,235.0318142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Rockets77c12,703$9,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,816.57062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde4b…d05dbacked Rockets0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Kings17c11,765$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,764.7176746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Kings28c10,274$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,402.7134456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Kings16c10,254$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,613.2926544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Kings35c10,140$3,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,614.2812143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Rockets80c10,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.9935447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Rockets52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.981,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Kings20c9,964$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,971.0817150.3%86 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Rockets51c9,813$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kings30c9,757$2,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,817.261,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Rockets54c9,260$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Rockets56c9,073$5,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,117.117441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Rockets59c8,468$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99910158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Rockets52c8,454$4,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,395.811,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Rockets73c8,318$6,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,068.2622458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kings34c7,674$2,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,102.5681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Kings77c7,519$5,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.7743051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Kings19c7,136$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,752.4861939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings17c7,100$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,923.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Kings73c6,909$5,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.5219388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Kings37c6,451$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.731,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Rockets39c6,117$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3606943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…251ebacked Kings15c6,100$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,184.951346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Kings17c5,882$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.357640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Kings17c5,700$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,73115435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Kings17c5,644$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,674.767537.3%28 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Kings72c5,544$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.936758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Kings16c5,392$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,529.3921143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Kings29c5,363$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,802.7450838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Kings17c5,134$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,253.566841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Kings40c5,023$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.7833632.4%109 W · 227 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Kings16c5,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Rockets42c4,893$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.852,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…d88ebacked Kings17c4,806$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9818030%24 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Kings17c4,703$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,914.3823747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Kings48c4,560$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.074254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Kings16c4,526$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,784.0886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1658…d875backed Rockets32c4,316$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3642924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Kings17c4,267$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,559.5325546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fe…74dbbacked Kings16c4,229$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,540.043429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets47c4,171$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.363,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Kings48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.6712541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Kings16c4,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Rockets35c4,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.995345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…c868backed Kings17c3,600$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9881275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+60.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Kings17c3,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Kings29c3,470$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.7322035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Rockets1c3,455$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac1…e989backed Kings17c3,353$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+90.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Kings30c3,332$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.741540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kings37c3,268$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.2776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Kings17c3,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,49061740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Rockets12c3,000$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3573818.4%7 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Rockets72c2,841$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.352626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.6wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-46.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Rockets40c2,837$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.8415514.8%23 W · 132 L-28.1wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-65.1%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Rockets65c2,690$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.548046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Rockets42c2,536$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.7489444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Kings16c2,500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Kings16c2,500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.9932051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kings14c2,467$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.472450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x072d…0d35backed Rockets41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+94.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Rockets68c2,438$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.6847856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings28c2,409$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.164,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Kings17c2,395$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.1718446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f83…8c23backed Kings16c2,300$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.674320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Kings53c2,246$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.5210255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Kings13c2,200$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.0225146.2%116 W · 135 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Rockets50c2,200$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1007447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Rockets68c2,148$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.1441954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239b…964abacked Kings27c2,085$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.510059%59 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Kings37c2,027$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.0365339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Kings16c2,000$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,673.3768944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.