NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8dc09a06c5593ae7c4dc1c4045c855113b847ba47672c7a1c81f64806363cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 40c | 2,297$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.14 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 61c | 2,000$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.14 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7f…9485backed Over | 2c | 1,506$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +1,014%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 2c | 1,480$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 58c | 525$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 402.59$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 36c | 345$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 56c | 283$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 4c | 250.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 56c | 185$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under | 55c | 175$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 137.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 58c | 121$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 9c | 117.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 51c | 112.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c1…a2d1backed Over | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 91.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 39c | 75.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Under | 80c | 51.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…2551backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 220.5this page
- Rockets vs. KingsKings won
- Rockets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 221.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 222.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Kings won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.