Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x888c776fa101405df636c12ad9860151eda553e1e76a237b742a6ab8178b71ec

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,290,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $798,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,290,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 612 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	37,776$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	25,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	0c	22,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	19,000$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.5	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes	0c	18,690$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a63…9203backed Yes	14c	16,185$2,331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,330.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	15c	15,383$2,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,375.18	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No	80c	14,708$11,713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,994.96	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	14,700$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.16	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	13,767$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.87	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	13,453$2,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,701.16	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	2c	12,651$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.52	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x830c…f249backed Yes	0c	11,045$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	15c	11,000$1,691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,691.41	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	17c	10,931$1,824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,823.91	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	10,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	10,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	12c	8,614$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074.59	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	18c	8,593$1,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,508.75	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	19c	8,324$1,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580.24	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	21c	7,780$1,635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,634.51	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	30c	7,001$2,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,107.7	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	6,751$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.46	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	19c	6,286$1,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,196	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	8c	6,100$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.6	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	10c	6,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	23c	5,716$1,305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,305.27	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	5,492$4,358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,133.77	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	26c	5,221$1,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,358.83	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	5,206$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.01	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	23c	5,071$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.94	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No	79c	4,957$3,911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,046	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5296…a88bbacked Yes	21c	4,828$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	4,735$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.46	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes	24c	4,587$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.82	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	25c	4,435$1,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,106.73	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	16c	4,160$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	12c	4,102$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.33	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	27c	4,009$1,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,089.81	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	23c	4,000$924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	3,969$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.1	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	80c	3,874$3,085 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$788.98	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,650$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,613$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.64	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	16c	3,518$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.35	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	8c	3,374$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.62	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f59…3b40backed No	80c	3,352$2,672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$680.28	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	3c	3,271$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.87	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	20c	3,263$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.26	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	3,238$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.11	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	20c	3,206$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.13	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	17c	3,100$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.02	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	23c	3,058$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.54	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes	11c	3,000$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	8c	2,983$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.9	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	11c	2,883$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.33	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	2,720$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.12	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	2c	2,590$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.38	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	23c	2,500$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	8c	2,305$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.4	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	2,300$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.86	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	2,218$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.62	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	10c	2,175$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.44	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	23c	2,161$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.1	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	6c	2,155$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32c1…0605backed Yes	12c	2,136$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.08	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	19c	2,126$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.67	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	21c	2,118$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.79	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	2,088$1,645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.47	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	79c	2,082$1,635 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$446.18	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	19c	2,056$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.52	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	25c	2,040$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	12c	2,015$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.8	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	12c	2,000$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.22	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	18c	2,000$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes	13c	2,000$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.85	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	8c	1,917$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.1	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	8c	1,912$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	11c	1,825$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.12	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	1,800$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	79c	1,726$1,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.6	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	24c	1,723$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	13c	1,706$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.01	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	25c	1,690$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.86	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	20c	1,686$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.07	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	7c	1,682$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.96	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc8…d2b1backed Yes	18c	1,639$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.81	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-42%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	10c	1,614$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.54	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	26c	1,552$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.94	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	20c	1,475$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	20c	1,413$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.29	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	16c	1,365$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b9…25dfbacked Yes	15c	1,362$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.76	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	1,337$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde71…070ebacked Yes	10c	1,300$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.03	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	17c	1,294$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.91	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes	19c	1,290$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.77	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	24c	1,278$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.91	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event