Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf96ffb10e7b715bc06d5be34c70204f2a01ff6e7985adcd4dbc8ab5808dcddf5

Rebuilt 40 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,850,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,643,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,850,650 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 925 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	41,359$2,057 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39,302.15	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	56c	28,532$15,976 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,556.1	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	13c	24,933$3,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,606.52	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	45c	22,005$9,914 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,091.37	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	20c	21,828$4,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,457.33	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	80c	19,471$15,576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,895.69	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed No	59c	17,753$10,527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,527.03	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	52c	17,552$9,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,208.56	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5b4…9785backed Yes	69c	15,661$10,763 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,897.72	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+72.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	45c	14,462$6,446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,016.23	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	46c	14,191$6,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,509.42	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	10c	13,424$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,024.53	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No	0c	13,418$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.75	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	27c	12,700$3,390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,309.51	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	51c	11,700$5,942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,757.56	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	34c	11,673$3,955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,718.63	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	30c	11,473$3,387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,086.26	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca1…7181backed Yes	70c	11,017$7,706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,310.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	11,000$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,570.91	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	10,079$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,590.25	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed No	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	67c	9,868$6,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,294.7	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	46c	9,649$4,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,176.56	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	3c	9,559$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,303.48	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	11c	8,801$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,800.85	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	8,506$1,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,003.31	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	8,000$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,708.99	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	22c	7,503$1,636 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,867.23	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	57c	7,148$4,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,095.75	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	6,945$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,610.39	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	26c	6,909$1,795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,114.01	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	22c	6,793$1,509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,283.44	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	29c	6,750$1,930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,820.37	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	12c	6,476$747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,729.67	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	16c	6,329$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,339.23	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	26c	6,286$1,624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,662.25	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe926…6ebcbacked Yes	34c	6,000$2,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,930.03	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	6,000$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,760	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae1…8902backed No	66c	6,000$3,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,930	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	13c	6,000$780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,219.33	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	32c	5,952$1,911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,041.44	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	42c	5,690$2,363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,326.71	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	21c	5,414$1,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,277.87	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	69c	5,051$3,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,503.32	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes	10c	5,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,500	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	11c	4,828$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,304.04	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe98c…49bebacked Yes	5c	4,804$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,543.02	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	19c	4,642$863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,778.95	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	4,377$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,178.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	35c	4,332$1,522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,809.97	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	4,223$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,053.41	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	10c	4,194$412 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,782.37	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	20c	4,104$804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,299.44	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	7c	4,084$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,816.14	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	3,807$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,633.65	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a3…e375backed Yes	68c	3,734$2,539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,194.63	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b5…0f8cbacked Yes	51c	3,626$1,846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,779.64	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	3c	3,600$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,491.98	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	6c	3,592$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,384.6	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,526$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,368.57	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b3…4fcdbacked Yes	38c	3,460$1,317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,142.98	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Yes	4c	3,221$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,091.46	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	4cpaid	+230.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	18c	3,220$589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,630.94	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6369…dadbbacked Yes	49c	3,216$1,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,646.04	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	30c	3,161$957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,203.85	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	28c	3,105$870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,234.73	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733c…851fbacked Yes	36c	3,050$1,103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,947.88	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c1…4017backed Yes	79c	3,042$2,406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$636.55	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb119…5373backed Yes	58c	3,030$1,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,280.22	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+97.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f91…0689backed Yes	6c	2,961$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,777.73	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes	20c	2,833$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,263.76	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	33c	2,802$931 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,871.03	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No	68c	2,796$1,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,893.19	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	65cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	22c	2,662$573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,088.33	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7de…dae0backed Yes	34c	2,627$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,726.45	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed No	2c	2,612$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.18	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes	76c	2,515$1,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594.51	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b7…a3eebacked No	66c	2,512$1,669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,669.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	41c	2,461$1,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,459.94	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes	6c	2,455$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,296.75	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa756…7beabacked Yes	5c	2,415$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,297.7	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+237.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	12c	2,382$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,095.84	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	10c	2,319$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,080.59	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yes	40c	2,299$914 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,385.33	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	48c	2,217$1,063 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,154	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	48c	2,203$1,067 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,135.72	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,202$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,118.56	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed No	2c	2,200$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	2,199$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,111.19	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	47c	2,188$1,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,163.8	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	50c	2,176$1,096 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080.25	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	21c	2,119$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,671.97	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Yes	43c	2,092$890 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,201.82	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	40c	2,035$813 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,221.86	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	2,018$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,919.25	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	7c	2,017$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,879.13	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16c…7524backed No	1c	2,006$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	6c	2,000$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,877	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	6c	2,000$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,885	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	68c	1,966$1,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630.48	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event