Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa5489f484dfd55e650eb2cb334c5c547a5e55d0077387d54590b117d0bc2e7

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $429,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $271,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	0c	57,996$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Yes	0c	16,616$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.33per pick	42cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,554$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,385$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8f…178abacked Yes	0c	13,320$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	11,704$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	10,969$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	5,834$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.84	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	4,296$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.86	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,064$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.79	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,036$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.6	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,155$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.12	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	12c	3,000$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.1	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	2c	2,500$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,290$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.44	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,850$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.86	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	1,804$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.38	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	6c	1,779$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	8c	1,528$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked Yes	3c	1,525$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4472…13dabacked Yes	1c	1,434$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	2c	1,418$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.77	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	1c	1,336$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	2c	1,318$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	1,278$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.77	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,248$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.95	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	4c	1,247$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.37	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	4c	1,200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6948…b971backed Yes	2c	1,200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	8c	1,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.99	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,158$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	1,150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	1c	1,144$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,039$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.41	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,028$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.03	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	8c	1,006$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.63	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	11c	999.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	992.47$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.72	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0181…dc91backed Yes	2c	972.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	956.15$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.32	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	12c	951.12$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.62	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	14c	857.14$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	848.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	7c	837.09$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…7074backed Yes	9c	816.11$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.45	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	8c	799.98$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47e0…6510backed Yes	4c	698.2$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	7c	599.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	569.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	11c	529.96$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.89	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	8c	499.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	4c	478.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	13c	412.52$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.63	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…690bbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	3c	351.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x915f…7fdbbacked Yes	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f06…add9backed Yes	3c	310$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x647b…5750backed Yes	7c	303.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	6c	284.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	255.76$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	13c	245.7$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes	13c	220$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x114e…f20cbacked Yes	14c	209.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	6c	203.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eea…726bbacked Yes	6c	167$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa72a…026dbacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x028d…dc79backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65a0…efe9backed Yes	8c	130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	11c	120$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	13c	116.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	12c	115$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x718f…086cbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc8…02b2backed Yes	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	13c	98.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event