Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b12e1bfa840cb8ee88c976074968ad9885baf4b28edbe5482d11c9a5a134e9

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $483,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $334,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,136 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7ee1…a312backed Yes	0c	43,422$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	10	10%1 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	1c	22,710$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	11,633$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4a…cb91backed Yes	0c	7,996$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	7,914$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.58	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	7,139$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.09	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,319$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	6,128$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.71	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f7…fb66backed Yes	0c	4,733$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,350$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	4,211$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,148$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.65	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	4c	4,066$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.85	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,976$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.92	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	2c	3,752$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.75	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	3,291$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.85	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	11c	3,000$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,547$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.48	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	2,259$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.33	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	2,170$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.15	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	2,136$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.32	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	1c	2,053$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	9c	2,050$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,000$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.29	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	1,987$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.73	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	1,928$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,875$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	1c	1,866$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	7c	1,772$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	3c	1,676$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.32	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	10c	1,486$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	1,465$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.61	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,457$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	6c	1,448$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.8	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,425$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	7c	1,424$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.28	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	7c	1,408$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2920…a166backed Yes	1c	1,361$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+80.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	4c	1,293$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	5c	1,200$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	1,148$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.39	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6948…b971backed Yes	4c	1,130$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.2	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf5…56a1backed Yes	1c	1,127$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	123	32.5%40 W · 83 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad3b…1385backed Yes	1c	1,111$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	10cpaid	+226.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	10c	1,029$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.58	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked Yes	10c	1,019$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	20cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	4c	999.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	10c	999.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…6d71backed Yes	10c	976.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92c0…3625backed Yes	2c	947.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	936.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	11c	900$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	6c	833.97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.01	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	4c	818.01$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.21	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	8c	800$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	11c	650$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	4c	600$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	4c	600$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.65	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	595$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.23	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	2c	571.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…13dabacked Yes	4c	512.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c58…ec18backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	469.82$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32c…de99backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	452.9$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	6c	419.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…690bbacked Yes	9c	399.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	4c	360.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a85…f0c7backed Yes	11c	356.77$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	352.84$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x114e…f20cbacked Yes	11c	328.27$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	4c	315$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes	5c	307.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	179	20.7%37 W · 142 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe838…3832backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	8c	299.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	10c	299.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	8c	279.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	11c	262.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7896…6653backed Yes	4c	255.66$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb66…c55bbacked Yes	9c	254.31$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.89	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	7c	245.03$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b9…969bbacked Yes	9c	243.95$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-62%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa72a…026dbacked Yes	11c	236.36$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	210$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3316…bbaebacked Yes	10c	209.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event