Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53abb32b56a1f2c6800c52769e82ed630bb847bd4d431418b6473f663fb55648

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,655,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $890,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,655,217 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 552 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	42,238$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.24	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3e…edc9backed Yes	2c	39,733$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	37,776$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc47…be03backed Yes	10c	35,099$3,657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,657.32	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	0c	29,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	26,112$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.86	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	25,889$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.03	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	5c	21,183$1,036 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,035.63	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25a3…8b8bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes	0c	18,690$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	17,814$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.75	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	8c	17,101$1,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,324.27	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	16,774$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.9	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	12c	15,333$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,799.92	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	22c	14,704$3,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,231.84	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	1c	13,394$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.34	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	12,328$2,399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,398.89	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	12,010$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.04	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	11,504$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed No	75c	11,124$8,331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,793.23	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	19c	11,008$2,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,139.47	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	9c	10,908$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950.8	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	10,904$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.21	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	27c	10,784$2,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,924.7	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	10,129$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4154…b2cabacked Yes	2c	10,001$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	12c	9,174$1,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,124.85	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	9,113$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.62	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	8,719$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	8,364$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,291.27	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b9…25dfbacked Yes	2c	8,310$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	20c	8,000$1,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,626.48	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	7,954$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.05	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	7,794$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.77	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	7c	7,001$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.66	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe99a…918fbacked Yes	28c	6,440$1,798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,797.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	6c	6,168$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.7	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	10c	6,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	5,662$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.14	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	0c	5,568$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92d7…f210backed Yes	1c	5,426$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	5,273$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.08	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	16c	4,932$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.94	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,779$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	4c	4,645$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	3c	4,542$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.05	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	7c	4,383$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.67	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	0c	4,360$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	22c	4,082$884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884.15	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7c…6be3backed Yes	3c	3,857$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	3c	3,846$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.05	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	13c	3,812$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.4	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	3,530$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.24	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	20c	3,479$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.56	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	15c	3,433$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.53	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	1c	3,389$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.52	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	78c	3,297$2,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736.54	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	2c	3,260$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.16	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	1c	3,186$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.97	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	11c	3,143$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.57	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa00…6ab7backed Yes	3c	3,073$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	12c	3,056$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.09	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03dd…163bbacked Yes	3c	3,055$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.47	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	8c	3,030$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.97	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	3,005$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.44	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.71	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	11c	2,959$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.9	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…9d31backed Yes	2c	2,889$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	1c	2,878$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.05	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	7c	2,876$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.04	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	2c	2,575$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.06	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	1c	2,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	19c	2,500$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.85	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	30c	2,471$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	22c	2,457$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.45	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Yes	2c	2,455$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.56	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc8…d2b1backed Yes	2c	2,438$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-42%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	9c	2,375$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.05	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	21c	2,348$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.35	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	8c	2,330$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.25	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	10c	2,255$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.64	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf805…1d1ebacked Yes	5c	2,154$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	20c	2,132$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.89	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde71…070ebacked Yes	10c	2,125$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.28	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f3…e016backed Yes	20c	2,118$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	5c	2,110$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.92	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	2c	2,100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Yes	4c	2,075$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.7	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	2,030$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.97	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	4c	2,013$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.83	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	19c	2,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.95	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	11c	2,000$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.31	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.7	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	15c	1,981$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.93	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	16c	1,900$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	16c	1,830$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.68	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf56…ef59backed Yes	19c	1,779$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+85.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event