Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51bafe9b42e201b946fe26e1e9f663e17a93230090b307829ae0c090a925d0a1

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $204,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $169,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,990 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	6,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	4,905$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.82	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	1c	4,696$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.51	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	0c	4,436$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	3,763$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.38	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	4c	3,017$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.94	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	1c	3,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	10c	3,000$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.69	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	4c	2,792$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,489$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,320$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.22	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,203$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	2,131$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.12	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdff5…0bcebacked Yes	1c	1,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	1,304$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.71	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	1,293$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.23	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,259$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,259$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.02	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	1,203$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	3c	1,154$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	5c	1,150$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,125$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.46	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,121$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.64	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6948…b971backed Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,064$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	5c	1,012$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked Yes	3c	999.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…c55bbacked Yes	9c	999.9$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.99	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	923.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.34	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	9c	899.95$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	844.84$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	798.88$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.17	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	2c	719.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	3c	700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	5c	599.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	5c	591.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	5c	578.49$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf2…1a6dbacked Yes	6c	556.54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	5c	510.34$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	499.96$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	454.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	360.81$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	336$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed Yes	6c	331.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	321.19$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65a0…efe9backed Yes	5c	220$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4df…db4bbacked Yes	7c	214.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa71…1bcbbacked Yes	5c	205$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b50…e9cebacked Yes	5c	200.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eea…726bbacked Yes	6c	166.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x028d…dc79backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	144.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	10c	119.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event