Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8455f2bf006c1de7244ced9b0cf2953ac2b9e32d1124c61cc519acc4c3e252c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $951,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $591,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $951,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae4f…b821backed Yes | 0c | 51,556$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 1c | 24,078$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.8 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…d42fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 21,486$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…20a3backed Yes | 0c | 19,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,887$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 16,884$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,547$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 129 | 0.8%1 W · 128 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +675.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,962$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 136 | 0.7%1 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +635.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…3d3ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…a312backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e0…0580backed Yes | 0c | 13,277$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 12,862$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 1c | 12,018$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.74 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 0c | 11,631$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…fd5abacked Yes | 0c | 10,178$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…005ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…77c5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…5f42backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…ddebbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 7,174$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.42 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,599$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 8c | 6,583$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.98 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 6,422$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,291$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 2c | 6,251$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 5,837$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 3c | 5,699$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 143 | 14%20 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 5,103$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.35 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…bcf1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…b250backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…a7ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked Yes | 4c | 4,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,891$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 3,771$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,999$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…92acbacked Yes | 0c | 2,897$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 2,895$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 1c | 2,886$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 2,811$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 3c | 2,780$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 127 | 12.6%16 W · 111 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ff…a17cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,675$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…e0d3backed Yes | 3c | 2,635$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 105 | 6.7%7 W · 98 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 7c | 2,411$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.23 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,364$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,250$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.93 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 1c | 2,234$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,189$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 182 | 4.9%9 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c0…3625backed Yes | 3c | 2,131$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,043$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 296 | 8.1%24 W · 272 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…3fdcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,022$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 244 | 12.7%31 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…eb80backed Yes | 2c | 1,986$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,952$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes | 7c | 1,950$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,887$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,717$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,656$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 5c | 1,643$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 1,582$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…b14bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,479$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Yes | 2c | 1,457$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,296$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 1,293$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…c1b5backed Yes | 4c | 1,285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…0c86backed Yes | 8c | 1,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 8c | 1,235$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6948…b971backed Yes | 6c | 1,233$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 98 | 9.2%9 W · 89 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 7c | 1,190$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…c1c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,051$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 3c | 1,041$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 7c | 1,014$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 172 | 8.7%15 W · 157 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0380backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…026ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 9c | 999.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 6c | 948.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…b315backed Yes | 9c | 894.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…f712backed Yes | 1c | 889.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…c55bbacked Yes | 9c | 870.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 860.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes | 2c | 851.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 51 | 2%1 W · 50 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 2c | 743.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 2c | 731.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…d064backed Yes | 8c | 731.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…b477backed Yes | 3c | 701.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…14a7backed Yes | 4c | 700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 3c | 649.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 3c | 641.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…4058backed Yes | 7c | 635.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 264 | 10.6%28 W · 236 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…0bcebacked Yes | 3c | 623.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.