Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd42bd9adf7d728e4b197a07ea05df396657dc9c461af03ccdeb7720fc82c5f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $853,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $474,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $853,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,775$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 12c | 15,000$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 14,664$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 2c | 12,019$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.35 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 11,449$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.32 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 153 | 9.8%15 W · 138 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…816ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,963$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 7,765$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 1c | 7,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 296 | 8.1%24 W · 272 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,473$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,448$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,267$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 8c | 7,106$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.23 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 11c | 7,000$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.36 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 6,722$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.63 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,159$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 9c | 5,601$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.27 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 11c | 5,597$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.24 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 5,512$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.65 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 5,485$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.51 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 5,321$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.22 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 5,288$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.96 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…eda5backed Yes | 3c | 4,973$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 3c | 4,760$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 0c | 4,633$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 122 | 4.9%6 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,551$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.46 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked Yes | 12c | 4,500$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.5 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 4,090$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.33 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…ddebbacked Yes | 3c | 4,054$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 10c | 3,979$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.42 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 3c | 3,692$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 3,591$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.55 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…b5d1backed Yes | 1c | 3,579$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,474$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,469$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.03 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 3,317$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…d77bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3b…1385backed Yes | 3c | 3,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.73 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…4415backed Yes | 3c | 2,847$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 7c | 2,653$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 2,626$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed Yes | 7c | 2,622$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.75 | 98 | 9.2%9 W · 89 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed Yes | 4c | 2,578$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 2,518$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 6c | 2,443$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 7c | 2,333$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.43 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,290$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 158 | 12%19 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 2,276$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 2,253$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.23 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 8c | 2,217$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.95 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,173$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.43 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…e0d3backed Yes | 6c | 2,165$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 105 | 6.7%7 W · 98 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes | 7c | 2,159$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 204 | 13.2%27 W · 177 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…b14bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,065$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…4058backed Yes | 6c | 2,024$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 264 | 10.6%28 W · 236 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…b250backed Yes | 2c | 1,968$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 7c | 1,918$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 4c | 1,895$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 10c | 1,869$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.46 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…eb80backed Yes | 4c | 1,796$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 3c | 1,688$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…005ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,653$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 4c | 1,592$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 6c | 1,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,589$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…efe1backed Yes | 2c | 1,581$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ac…5687backed Yes | 2c | 1,524$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…a967backed Yes | 2c | 1,519$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 2c | 1,392$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 143 | 14%20 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863c…655cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,309$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 108 | 16.7%18 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,306$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 6c | 1,239$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,187$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 182 | 4.9%9 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 6c | 1,121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…ac11backed Yes | 4c | 1,116$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 2c | 1,090$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,077$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes | 12c | 1,044$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 181 | 16%29 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…b2c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,039$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457b…98c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,001$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…e163backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…0380backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 13c | 995.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 103 | 12.6%13 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes | 5c | 992.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.