Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd182e030d3f0bd9ad56d26fc84576b4514857e84fe024a6ce68a776c943d75

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $910,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $490,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $910,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,886$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc46c…2e51backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	13,295$1,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,692.31	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	13,059$2,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,679.25	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe99a…918fbacked Yes	24c	12,593$2,977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,976.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	1c	12,018$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.84	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	21c	11,017$2,289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,288.58	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	20c	10,190$2,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,016.92	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	8,684$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.69	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	8,461$1,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,096.83	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	7,823$1,347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,347.32	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	5c	7,267$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.11	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	7,255$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.67	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	14c	7,069$1,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,023.03	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c1…5236backed Yes	1c	6,351$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	13c	6,262$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.9	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	6,180$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	12c	6,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	5,979$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.67	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	18c	5,300$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.19	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,226$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.13	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	14c	4,801$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.29	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	8c	4,511$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.9	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	23c	4,244$957 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957.3	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	12c	4,182$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.76	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	4,000$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	4,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	13c	3,721$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.8	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e06…66febacked Yes	1c	3,705$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	16c	3,692$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	3,575$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.98	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	9c	3,400$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.8	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x502c…7c03backed Yes	13c	3,339$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.11	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	78c	3,007$2,342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$664.46	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	2,903$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.04	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	12c	2,842$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.16	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	7c	2,800$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.3	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	27c	2,769$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.44	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes	19c	2,716$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.83	124	29%36 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+110.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,639$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	2,602$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.36	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	2,517$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	20c	2,500$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.49	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	16c	2,444$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	2,179$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.14	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	8c	2,160$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.09	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4154…b2cabacked Yes	1c	2,062$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	13c	2,027$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.75	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	12c	2,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.97	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	17c	2,000$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.57	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	13c	1,946$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.46	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	1,881$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.72	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	1c	1,875$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e8…3153backed No	75c	1,850$1,391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.01	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa756…7beabacked Yes	5c	1,800$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.2	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+237.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	21c	1,733$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.77	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes	6c	1,680$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	5c	1,607$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	1,537$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.88	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	15c	1,525$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.02	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	4c	1,524$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.98	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	1,410$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.64	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	1,400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.97	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	1,348$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.05	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,344$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.34	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70ea…72efbacked Yes	17c	1,343$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.62	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c8…2257backed Yes	17c	1,300$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.18	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	17c	1,300$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.7	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	9c	1,290$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.34	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked No	79c	1,271$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.03	43	65.1%28 W · 15 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	1,250$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.04	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	18c	1,247$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.84	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	15c	1,221$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.31	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	7c	1,176$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.1	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	2c	1,165$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	8c	1,119$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	1c	1,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	14c	1,072$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.25	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	18c	1,039$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.46	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	18c	1,039$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9e…8a23backed Yes	5c	1,030$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	10c	1,015$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.72	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	16c	1,002$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.23	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	19c	1,000$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	14c	1,000$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	9c	1,000$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.25	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	16c	1,000$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.9	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…6435backed Yes	22c	1,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	22c	1,000$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	8c	953.95$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.05	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	23c	924.34$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.69	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf56…ef59backed Yes	16c	914.82$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+85.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	8c	906.55$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.8	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	8c	900.37$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	17c	900$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.6	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d3…17adbacked Yes	23c	871.84$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	15c	868.29$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.38	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event