Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f52c0aaf99b2f1ddcc54a8f747b61733bb452cf8bb30de939ad05b14111855

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $245,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $195,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	17,776$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,437$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	5,200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.3	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	4,077$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.08	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	2,833$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.37	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,747$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.94	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	3c	2,343$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.23	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	2,112$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.74	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	1c	1,996$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	1,759$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,569$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,388$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	1,381$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.16	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	2c	1,349$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	1,265$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,250$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	2c	1,249$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.92	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	2c	1,213$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	2c	1,150$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	2c	1,007$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	1,002$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb460…041fbacked Yes	2c	893.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	2c	861.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	839.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	828.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	2c	818.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.28	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	716.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb916…ef69backed Yes	2c	549.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5b50…e9cebacked Yes	3c	399.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event