Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f8790926f05d2b6ce8097499cc0bb9a6b0d8dc59b1bd34dccbe510006b963e

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $960,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $558,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $960,495 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	37,775$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e79…af9ebacked Yes	0c	19,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	2c	17,367$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.43	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	13,610$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.79	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	1c	12,004$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.75	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	13c	11,728$1,539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,538.81	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7de…dae0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	9,759$1,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,239.4	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	9,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	8c	8,829$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.44	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	8,329$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.09	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	7,986$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.79	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	7,484$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.93	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes	1c	7,432$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.82	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dde…8dfdbacked Yes	0c	7,368$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	7,231$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.62	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	9c	6,648$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.43	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	6,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	5,986$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.94	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	5,979$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	9c	5,068$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.32	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	4,501$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.11	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	4,498$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	4,257$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.02	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	4,182$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.17	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	4,125$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.09	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	4,093$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.46	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	3c	4,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e4…b019backed Yes	9c	3,906$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	3,895$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.92	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	12c	3,775$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.36	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	3,596$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.98	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	10c	3,461$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.42	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	6c	3,335$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.54	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	12c	3,222$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.63	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,139$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	7c	3,000$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.59	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	3,000$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	6c	2,792$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.5	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	2,571$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.73	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	10c	2,507$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.56	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	3c	2,500$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.1	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,436$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.25	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	8c	2,288$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.11	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	15c	2,212$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	4c	2,160$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.8	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	10c	2,072$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.96	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	2,050$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.68	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	17c	2,049$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.19	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.72	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	9c	2,000$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	7c	1,991$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.04	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,966$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.16	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	1,910$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	11c	1,897$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.1	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	15c	1,873$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.58	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	15c	1,663$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	5c	1,540$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	1,537$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.01	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.61	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes	7c	1,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.38	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	10c	1,488$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.88	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	13c	1,466$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.97	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1806…e177backed Yes	17c	1,428$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.32	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	8c	1,420$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	1,413$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.12	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ea…72efbacked Yes	14c	1,410$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.45	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	8c	1,290$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.31	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	11c	1,271$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.4	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2152…717cbacked Yes	8c	1,255$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	6c	1,250$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.86	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	8c	1,249$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.98	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	1,197$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.23	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	7c	1,189$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.49	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,159$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	1,141$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.64	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	9c	1,100$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.23	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	11c	1,094$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.25	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	6c	1,085$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.85	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	15c	1,050$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb460…041fbacked Yes	10c	1,049$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42d…5287backed Yes	9c	1,042$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.7	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	5c	1,041$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb36b…a967backed Yes	8c	1,024$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2718…dc38backed Yes	9c	1,023$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.44per pick	23cpaid	+200.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad3b…1385backed Yes	8c	1,021$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.38	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	10cpaid	+226.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc86f…f86abacked Yes	9c	1,014$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c22…160abacked Yes	17c	1,002$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.4	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	9c	1,000$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	9c	1,000$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.81	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	13c	1,000$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.47	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3691…8ec2backed Yes	14c	1,000$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	15c	1,000$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4059…6435backed Yes	12c	1,000$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27c8…2257backed Yes	9c	1,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed Yes	17c	999.91$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.32	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	8c	955.05$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.99	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e1…5119backed Yes	15c	929.08$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+64.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	10c	926.41$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.1	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x962c…bcd6backed Yes	11c	917.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event