TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0c22…160a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst College Football at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$20.21
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$18.25
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+138.4%+$22.06
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+133.4%+$314.09
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+68.1%+$215.95
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$147.22
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$36.79
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+26.6%+$18.89
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$194.31
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+154.3%+$101.33
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+25.4%+$9.72
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$114.44
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+55.7%+$96.6
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$41.89
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.11
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.84
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+313.9%+$52.33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$118.56
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+184.7%+$383.4
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+125.5%+$27.27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+130%+$42.96
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+128%+$60.06
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.96
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$133.05
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$61.69
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$159.33
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+54%+$48.02
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.33
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+106.1%+$10.81
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+44.9%+$8.06
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+55%+$32.66
Raptors vs. Celticsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$29.9
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$23.79
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$106.78
Pacers vs. Hornetsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+166.1%+$163.55
Jazz vs. Thunderbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$29.92
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+270.4%+$98.55
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$12.47
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$26.96
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+185.7%+$55.25
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$141.38
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$75.7
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$104.66
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$119.27
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$120.54
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$173.4
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+39.1%+$75.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+284.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+216.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+318.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+318.3%+$803.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+71.4%+$26.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+34.4%+$8.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$18.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$14.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.