Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e05e0150c23d2c0d616ef70b19e0b6e6590e73c6ea9307f68057ca63f32d10b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,575,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,522,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,575,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,565 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a35…0d46backed Yes | 47c | 251,524$118,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118,981.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ad…d506backed Yes | 8c | 196,625$15,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,730.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…de7abacked No | 61c | 186,387$113,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,886.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 43c | 159,578$68,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,030.31 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked No | 48c | 146,867$70,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,402.11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 50c | 125,695$62,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,910.65 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked Yes | 37c | 120,913$44,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,936.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed Yes | 56c | 111,580$62,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,745.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed No | 57c | 99,511$56,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,708.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 5c | 98,897$4,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,502.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0d…4dd3backed Yes | 42c | 90,953$38,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,623.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 58c | 90,000$52,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,095.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff1…0f59backed Yes | 1c | 87,110$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…6781backed Yes | 63c | 85,566$53,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,974.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 57c | 83,938$47,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,747.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 58c | 73,284$42,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,876.27 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…556dbacked No | 50c | 71,583$35,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,038.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 49c | 66,589$32,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,887.92 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5b9cbacked Yes | 8c | 65,042$5,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,020.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed Yes | 0c | 64,412$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 49c | 61,104$29,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,161.69 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 44c | 60,648$26,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,870.53 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 33c | 60,568$20,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,220.03 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…0d97backed Yes | 49c | 55,816$27,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,110.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 53c | 54,053$28,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,441.34 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…ce96backed No | 60c | 53,067$32,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,043.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed No | 34c | 52,083$17,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,374.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdb…4929backed No | 47c | 51,773$24,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,505.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…22a6backed Yes | 48c | 51,572$24,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,723.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…72ebbacked No | 49c | 51,485$25,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,293.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…8bf8backed No | 57c | 51,436$29,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,876.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 51,010$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.11 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…7ab6backed Yes | 51c | 49,261$24,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,879.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…ea74backed No | 56c | 48,930$27,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,463.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…3d9dbacked No | 45c | 48,701$21,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,816.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…9ff3backed No | 50c | 47,413$23,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,769.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 50c | 45,278$22,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,639.16 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…1eafbacked Yes | 50c | 42,996$21,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,513.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…c6b0backed Yes | 57c | 41,819$23,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,782.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes | 55c | 38,848$21,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,389.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 42c | 38,524$15,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,999.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe210…b956backed Yes | 51c | 38,198$19,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,593.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 50c | 37,465$18,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,883.48 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 53c | 37,196$19,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,333.82 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 54c | 36,864$19,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,961.49 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…5176backed Yes | 55c | 36,318$19,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,896.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b5…7ec8backed Yes | 38c | 36,016$13,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,602.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 45c | 35,852$16,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,159.87 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 48c | 34,689$16,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,803.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 46c | 33,247$15,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,170.09 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 65c | 33,210$21,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,690.27 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 67c | 31,767$21,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,622.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 50c | 31,710$15,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,705.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 44c | 31,550$14,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,029.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b6…630cbacked Yes | 47c | 30,735$14,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,475.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 33c | 30,000$9,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,987.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 60c | 29,065$17,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,511.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…6e87backed Yes | 52c | 29,000$15,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,189.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a8…20c0backed Yes | 42c | 28,901$12,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,200.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4763…45d9backed No | 44c | 28,879$12,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,190.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919b…2ca9backed Yes | 42c | 27,976$11,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,636.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…8b9dbacked Yes | 49c | 27,521$13,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,526.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…487bbacked Yes | 51c | 27,319$13,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,859.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed No | 72c | 27,104$19,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,591.97 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 13c | 26,838$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,407.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d70…5044backed Yes | 38c | 26,401$10,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,031.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 75c | 26,172$19,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,421.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…8292backed No | 53c | 26,114$13,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,147.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 54c | 25,916$14,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,109.21 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 56c | 25,662$14,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,182.77 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 10c | 25,483$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.18 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…46aebacked Yes | 53c | 24,822$13,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,254.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…bbc7backed No | 55c | 23,486$12,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,621.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e58…5749backed No | 69c | 23,469$16,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,334.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…48a6backed No | 50c | 23,449$11,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,649.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked No | 53c | 23,442$12,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,949.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa5…0c23backed Yes | 10c | 23,256$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 56c | 23,196$12,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,283.98 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…5705backed No | 53c | 23,157$12,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,953.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…8b61backed Yes | 7c | 23,118$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 0c | 23,039$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 60c | 22,879$13,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,801.02 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…a72dbacked No | 31c | 22,560$7,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,502.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed No | 58c | 22,500$12,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,546.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 49c | 21,900$10,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,640.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed No | 52c | 21,293$11,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 32c | 21,264$6,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,770.52 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…90d0backed No | 57c | 21,031$12,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,938.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 61c | 20,965$12,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,693.07 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c0…60c5backed Yes | 48c | 20,791$9,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,902.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Yes | 45c | 20,559$9,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,192.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…6bc0backed No | 60c | 20,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…1679backed No | 50c | 20,000$10,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,983.98 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 48c | 19,950$9,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,407.1 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…d685backed Yes | 62c | 19,525$12,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,148.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 3c | 19,400$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…b1d0backed Yes | 45c | 18,959$8,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,531.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 48c | 18,398$8,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,579.42 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 53c | 18,095$9,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,471.56 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…2f92backed No | 70c | 18,089$12,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,453.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?this page
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.