Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49154bc34d811e6fcd2cea769a8690cc55b07f99b9513e404729059e6b2a741f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $762,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $828,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $762,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 1c | 45,051$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.2 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 28,771$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…705dbacked Yes | 1c | 27,182$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…aa72backed Yes | 1c | 21,652$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked Yes | 2c | 17,409$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes | 1c | 13,516$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…e4cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,938$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,454$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…472bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,057$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…7717backed Yes | 1c | 7,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856d…34e6backed Yes | 1c | 7,600$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…ccd0backed Yes | 5c | 6,213$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd54a…6e8abacked Yes | 0c | 5,604$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…8dcfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,543$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…1b2fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,026$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6a…0eadbacked Yes | 1c | 4,707$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…81debacked Yes | 2c | 4,598$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 4c | 4,501$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,495$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…5838backed Yes | 2c | 4,465$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…e6afbacked Yes | 2c | 4,395$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c41…f6cdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,748$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…4513backed Yes | 3c | 3,257$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…e235backed Yes | 3c | 2,455$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,311$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,268$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,141$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,071$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,992$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d00…08b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,941$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,898$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…21debacked Yes | 2c | 1,776$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed Yes | 1c | 1,696$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 1c | 1,422$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b4…46acbacked Yes | 8c | 1,201$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,143$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,066$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…3b68backed Yes | 1c | 1,058$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…3be6backed Yes | 4c | 1,030$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…7274backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…59d0backed Yes | 2c | 962.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275e…c25bbacked Yes | 3c | 959.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…70e1backed Yes | 6c | 879.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…cb02backed Yes | 6c | 836.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes | 1c | 722.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…3627backed Yes | 2c | 694.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…130abacked Yes | 2c | 688.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0042backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…a44cbacked Yes | 7c | 456.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…f0f7backed Yes | 16c | 398.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 4c | 310.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2a…fbd0backed Yes | 4c | 297.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 293.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 8c | 236.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?this page
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.