Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36eb016b1653c866388a0b954567d10413d63e8dc18a8a0be611f0c82004c596

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,758,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,448,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,758,453 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes	4c	207,105$7,377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,377.03	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes	1c	50,375$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.88	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc484…4cd5backed Yes	5c	48,653$2,588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,587.83	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	24cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Yes	8c	34,659$2,643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,642.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4073…aa72backed Yes	2c	31,038$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.33	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa920…be41backed Yes	1c	30,425$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.17	30	0%0 W · 30 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0897…b4f4backed Yes	2c	26,109$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.63	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes	6c	25,000$1,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457	159	41.5%66 W · 93 L	+9.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed Yes	3c	25,000$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes	2c	24,205$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.29	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a28…d3bfbacked Yes	3c	23,628$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d1…e235backed Yes	3c	23,583$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.77	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes	1c	23,535$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.4	134	22.4%30 W · 104 L	+12.7wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+175.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02c5…8356backed Yes	6c	20,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes	7c	18,239$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,367.64	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes	2c	14,987$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.8	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	14,525$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.25	171	2.9%5 W · 166 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb543…705dbacked Yes	3c	13,889$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	13,095$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.67	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b83…9318backed Yes	2c	12,452$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.35	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…46aebacked Yes	3c	12,000$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…0a4cbacked Yes	1c	11,391$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d5…5637backed Yes	1c	11,111$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.78	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes	1c	11,104$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	94	22.3%21 W · 73 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Yes	5c	10,718$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.39	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf377…f7e0backed Yes	13c	10,357$1,319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,318.89	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd327…94a4backed Yes	1c	10,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2977…8abfbacked Yes	6c	10,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x252d…8a71backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…8b9dbacked Yes	1c	10,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	+45%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a7…ba6ebacked Yes	4c	9,634$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes	4c	9,608$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.86	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	2c	9,486$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.57	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	8,981$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.18	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdb…4929backed Yes	1c	8,187$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.06	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	39cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d3…c969backed Yes	4c	7,466$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.79	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.20per pick	38cpaid	+76.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa054…acdabacked Yes	1c	7,430$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+149.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes	8c	7,239$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.24	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bd8…cd6cbacked Yes	8c	7,137$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.35	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+246.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes	15c	6,851$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$994.41	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes	6c	6,554$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.29	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes	7c	6,442$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.6	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab3…b750backed Yes	1c	6,439$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.14	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	7c	6,401$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.96	72	8.3%6 W · 66 L	-6.4wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d7f…4b91backed Yes	2c	5,800$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	5,794$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.77	60	1.7%1 W · 59 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df4…fb3dbacked Yes	2c	5,794$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	20cpaid	-1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb6…c6b0backed Yes	6c	5,458$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.23	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05f0…fc39backed Yes	1c	5,100$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.38	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f4…0fc7backed Yes	2c	5,080$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+61.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Yes	1c	5,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	4,895$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.42	254	1.6%4 W · 250 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe79…530bbacked Yes	1c	4,755$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd757…7594backed Yes	2c	4,744$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3893…633cbacked Yes	7c	4,500$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.1	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed Yes	8c	4,435$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.42	20	15%3 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…6a00backed Yes	2c	4,321$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…409cbacked Yes	7c	4,293$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes	5c	4,288$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.86	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1900…ba78backed Yes	2c	4,107$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.85	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed Yes	2c	4,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	3,949$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.64	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+230.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	3,934$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.01	119	0.8%1 W · 118 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x058c…cbc2backed Yes	8c	3,927$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.62	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x526d…080abacked Yes	2c	3,900$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	3,864$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.29	77	3.9%3 W · 74 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	3,744$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.46	112	2.7%3 W · 109 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb7…3443backed Yes	4c	3,615$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	24cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked Yes	9c	3,609$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.92	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8802…ef1abacked Yes	6c	3,558$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.59	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-73%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa08…5b44backed Yes	1c	3,477$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes	4c	3,393$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.3	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	3,393$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.18	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a6…ba27backed Yes	3c	3,306$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…ccd0backed Yes	14c	3,236$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed Yes	7c	3,162$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f5febacked Yes	2c	3,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	1c	2,938$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c58…e53cbacked Yes	2c	2,818$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1605…43bfbacked Yes	5c	2,815$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.72	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-85.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…9d31backed Yes	3c	2,735$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes	3c	2,641$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.85	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes	6c	2,629$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.82	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9784…a93dbacked Yes	3c	2,579$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.97	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…deaebacked Yes	2c	2,504$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecf…e6afbacked Yes	6c	2,496$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	2,482$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.51	45	2.2%1 W · 44 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…d8b5backed Yes	4c	2,446$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.91	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes	6c	2,338$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.38	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb187…bbe1backed Yes	7c	2,288$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.58	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…d987backed Yes	9c	2,260$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4d…7be8backed Yes	7c	2,200$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.33per pick	17cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb47…bd95backed Yes	1c	2,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes	2c	2,191$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ff…0cacbacked Yes	5c	2,086$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f0…051fbacked Yes	4c	2,059$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.05	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2810…608cbacked Yes	7c	2,050$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x85de…3717backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80f4…c918backed Yes	4c	2,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.6	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?this page
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event