Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1f601faf600380da04e1ce3d46fc4c7dfea5e6247550b2b513761cb40f0a9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,086,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,664,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,086,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c5e…2f92backed No | 11c | 755,292$84,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,651.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked No | 0c | 464,100$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 11c | 428,697$45,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,610.04 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…5b59backed No | 35c | 380,605$134,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134,591.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…a499backed No | 3c | 305,143$8,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,833.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…a72dbacked No | 18c | 303,527$53,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,245.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0d…4dd3backed Yes | 60c | 242,127$145,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,718.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…de7abacked No | 10c | 236,768$23,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,483.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…6bc0backed No | 13c | 200,701$26,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,458.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…17b5backed No | 14c | 178,054$25,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,529.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 78c | 177,368$139,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,148.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867f…3281backed No | 38c | 163,425$62,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,616.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…ffb9backed No | 1c | 159,565$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 13c | 148,508$19,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,688.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4763…45d9backed No | 26c | 138,920$35,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,882.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed No | 0c | 137,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…71dcbacked Yes | 66c | 135,000$88,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,513.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b4b9backed No | 17c | 132,662$22,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,929.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…08efbacked No | 1c | 132,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…ba96backed No | 0c | 128,637$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 34c | 120,069$41,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,295.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…9e2bbacked Yes | 64c | 114,118$73,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,591.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…0388backed No | 0c | 113,090$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ae…0459backed Yes | 74c | 106,649$78,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,133.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 67c | 103,901$69,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,529.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512a…a830backed No | 0c | 100,280$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…6351backed No | 0c | 100,200$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed No | 15c | 99,685$14,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,967.69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 26c | 94,657$24,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,715.33 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…9820backed No | 0c | 92,700$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 15c | 89,639$13,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,646.44 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…1a9cbacked No | 20c | 89,617$18,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,193.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 9c | 87,671$7,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,914.68 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 8c | 86,641$6,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…1e72backed Yes | 63c | 85,015$53,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,638.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed No | 17c | 81,866$14,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,029.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…0841backed No | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 0c | 76,800$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 8c | 75,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed No | 17c | 72,804$12,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,631.94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…4df8backed No | 17c | 71,542$12,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,436.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…3399backed No | 16c | 71,140$11,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,121.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ace…525bbacked No | 0c | 70,854$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…3d9dbacked No | 19c | 70,126$13,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,449.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…407ebacked No | 0c | 70,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 0c | 67,408$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…9ff3backed No | 30c | 65,878$19,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,763.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…6c38backed No | 25c | 65,700$16,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,419.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked No | 10c | 65,213$6,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,308.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…cdf5backed Yes | 72c | 65,065$46,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,214.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 65c | 64,877$42,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,851.9 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…733abacked No | 16c | 64,576$10,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,147.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed No | 17c | 63,846$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600.18 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 27c | 62,225$16,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,697.23 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…3e14backed No | 32c | 61,853$20,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,074.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…bab3backed No | 42c | 60,880$25,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,436.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed No | 19c | 60,000$11,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,495.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…291ebacked No | 0c | 59,472$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 21c | 59,145$12,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,222.75 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed No | 8c | 57,578$4,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,689.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe0…266fbacked No | 44c | 53,185$23,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,428.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…d13bbacked No | 7c | 52,981$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 23c | 52,762$11,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,998.81 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…9b42backed No | 0c | 52,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…70abbacked No | 17c | 51,941$8,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,795 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…5e2dbacked No | 16c | 51,823$8,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,300.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 71c | 51,629$36,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,947.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…5ebbbacked Yes | 69c | 50,788$35,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,788.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 9c | 50,599$4,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,633.75 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…9728backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a27…731cbacked No | 6c | 50,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904a…9193backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d18…2d42backed No | 0c | 49,970$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…1703backed No | 0c | 49,810$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 69c | 48,272$33,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,938.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3f…645bbacked No | 0c | 47,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 46,453$10,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,995.16 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…0d26backed Yes | 60c | 45,398$27,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,224.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed No | 7c | 45,229$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 68c | 45,135$30,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,491.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 14c | 43,993$5,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,946.77 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 8c | 43,314$3,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.11 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbb…c439backed No | 0c | 41,910$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 73c | 41,832$30,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,396.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…72ebbacked No | 29c | 41,098$12,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,104.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed No | 3c | 40,050$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…8356backed Yes | 53c | 40,000$21,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,799.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…a95dbacked No | 32c | 39,818$12,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,820.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 13c | 39,589$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,016.44 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf38…5799backed No | 23c | 39,102$8,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,819.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 18c | 38,171$6,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,718.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed No | 18c | 37,717$6,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,781.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 20c | 36,500$7,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,234.99 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…c8b0backed No | 20c | 35,991$7,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,074.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 25c | 35,698$8,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,880.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…e235backed No | 27c | 35,541$9,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,688.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?this page
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.