Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cf862369990d386700a917891e4b3b2fa41ee143ed2bd95040160858c3dc6bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $903,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,023,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $903,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 3c | 35,000$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.57 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 3c | 29,473$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes | 1c | 21,053$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,908$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…c6b0backed Yes | 3c | 17,948$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed Yes | 2c | 17,544$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…46aebacked Yes | 2c | 15,000$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Yes | 2c | 12,996$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…705dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,664$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…959fbacked Yes | 2c | 11,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…472bbacked Yes | 6c | 10,929$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…aa72backed Yes | 2c | 10,061$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd327…94a4backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…3443backed Yes | 1c | 8,192$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…de7abacked Yes | 1c | 7,904$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes | 2c | 7,564$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…8507backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 6,900$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,743$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.51 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,448$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d70…5044backed No | 75c | 6,284$4,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…88d0backed Yes | 25c | 6,284$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 9c | 6,127$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.88 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c41…f6cdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,011$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 15c | 5,519$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…ba78backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,654$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c7…4216backed Yes | 2c | 4,486$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…5637backed Yes | 0c | 4,444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 2c | 4,110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…e17fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,947$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,947$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…a93dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,881$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 3,273$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…ccd0backed Yes | 8c | 3,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,014$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 2,881$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a3…0087backed Yes | 3c | 2,814$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 2,716$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…14ecbacked Yes | 4c | 2,648$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…2d1ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,620$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,604$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,590$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,350$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,068$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…a499backed Yes | 4c | 2,012$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…450bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 1,998$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…e235backed Yes | 4c | 1,947$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…c1f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,910$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…61fbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…186fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,772$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…dc5ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…cb68backed Yes | 3c | 1,688$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…03a5backed Yes | 3c | 1,656$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,509$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…cef8backed Yes | 1c | 1,507$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…4c0fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,461$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…47a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,448$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed Yes | 1c | 1,345$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…187cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,332$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…24c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…e6afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…81debacked Yes | 3c | 1,087$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374f…498fbacked Yes | 5c | 950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…3ea1backed Yes | 5c | 917$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e729backed Yes | 5c | 910$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082c…d296backed Yes | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…6770backed Yes | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a6…3b78backed Yes | 5c | 900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…a2a7backed Yes | 2c | 898.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…bdd0backed Yes | 4c | 857.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…bb86backed Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 672.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Yes | 3c | 656.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 2c | 612.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…005fbacked Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 569.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad21…cefcbacked Yes | 7c | 560.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373b…21debacked Yes | 6c | 501.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908f…35a8backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 16c | 494.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…bb7abacked Yes | 4c | 481.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…a879backed Yes | 16c | 467.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f7…98afbacked Yes | 18c | 447.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 4c | 419.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ef…5614backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c69abacked Yes | 4c | 408.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 13c | 407.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…9858backed Yes | 5c | 405.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…d37fbacked Yes | 5c | 384.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…c123backed Yes | 5c | 384.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…3cfdbacked Yes | 16c | 363.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?this page
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.