TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7cb6…c6b0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
19
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-73.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$9,043Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$9,042.81
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,739Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$2,738.99
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$348.23
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$525.79
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23,032.25
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23,783Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23,782.56
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$3,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$3,018.95
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14,058Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+111.3%+$15,643.51
All 8 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,021Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,020.99
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitalitybacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$860
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Spirit vs. MOUZbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,558Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT+180.8%+$2,817.82
All 3 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+122.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ankalaev vs. Pereirabacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$940Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+219.1%+$2,060
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagenbacked Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,580Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$420
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$582.56
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$959.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,400.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$463
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$49,827Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49,827.02
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.