Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,752,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,578,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,752,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 10,271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 35c | 1,446,463$511,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934,517.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…022fbacked Yes | 0c | 898,273$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 816,117$314,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314,905.93 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…cecebacked Yes | 22c | 586,209$129,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129,230.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 6c | 498,228$31,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,787.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 15c | 481,988$71,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,505.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 480,393$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 50c | 478,983$238,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240,751.33 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…7482backed Yes | 22c | 459,719$99,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,460.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 5c | 459,127$24,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,161.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…0bd5backed Yes | 0c | 456,080$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 431,165$33,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,989.05 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…3fc8backed Yes | 24c | 402,054$95,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,966.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…63b4backed Yes | 3c | 392,948$10,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,395.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 12c | 387,797$45,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,222.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 16c | 369,943$58,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,504.87 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 6c | 364,814$22,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,222.05 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f42…21ddbacked Yes | 9c | 363,798$32,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,316.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 12c | 361,699$45,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,167.61 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 60c | 354,688$212,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212,181.6 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54e…f4acbacked Yes | 1c | 352,820$4,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,347.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 24c | 346,590$81,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,838.4 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 1c | 346,116$4,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,468.17 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 12c | 337,205$41,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,027.87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 72c | 333,757$241,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,948.43 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 55c | 329,594$181,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181,286.68 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 14c | 327,902$44,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,618.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +811.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 14c | 322,496$46,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,024.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 12c | 319,445$38,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,296 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 7c | 313,969$22,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,636.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…8643backed No | 57c | 311,862$176,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135,592.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…b3fabacked Yes | 1c | 304,984$4,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,020.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 41c | 294,115$119,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174,688.9 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 14c | 278,969$39,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,561.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked Yes | 37c | 271,435$101,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,480.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed Yes | 0c | 270,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…cdf2backed Yes | 2c | 265,028$6,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,373.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…a772backed Yes | 13c | 264,899$34,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,036 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 77c | 260,228$200,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,044.96 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 7c | 255,312$18,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,033.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb2…f3c2backed Yes | 14c | 254,848$35,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,144.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 243,294$4,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,241.85 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…f717backed Yes | 16c | 240,175$39,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,456 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 15c | 238,350$35,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,752.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 8c | 226,924$18,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,884.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…72edbacked Yes | 8c | 224,351$17,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,797.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed No | 79c | 218,608$173,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,959.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 40c | 216,656$85,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,716.57 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…9ffcbacked Yes | 2c | 215,550$3,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes | 67c | 201,381$135,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,182.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…96ecbacked No | 78c | 200,747$156,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,143.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf9…a4a8backed Yes | 0c | 193,418$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 3c | 189,027$6,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,166.14 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…9bcebacked Yes | 65c | 188,292$122,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,924.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…f02bbacked Yes | 16c | 186,299$30,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,031.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8c20backed Yes | 7c | 175,377$13,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,106.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 37c | 173,532$64,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,339.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 16c | 165,622$25,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,930.91 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 161,083$18,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,609.22 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 9c | 155,277$13,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,544.31 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…74acbacked Yes | 1c | 154,406$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…97bfbacked Yes | 3c | 151,576$4,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,734.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6525…2672backed Yes | 66c | 150,163$99,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,829.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19c…f16bbacked Yes | 17c | 149,999$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,999.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 24c | 147,877$35,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,691.22 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df2…34d8backed Yes | 8c | 147,028$12,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,489.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…48bfbacked Yes | 22c | 145,937$31,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,513.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes | 45c | 144,340$64,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,402.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 60c | 142,353$85,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,941.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +192.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 29c | 140,024$40,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,570.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 43c | 138,413$58,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,860.17 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 63c | 136,385$86,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,113.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 26c | 134,757$34,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,805.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…f71abacked No | 80c | 133,686$106,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,828.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…0f89backed Yes | 16c | 128,574$20,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,571.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 2c | 128,570$2,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,816.12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 127,684$5,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,603.04 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a2…2b21backed Yes | 8c | 127,462$10,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,351.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 7c | 125,405$8,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,724.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 69c | 123,167$85,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,023.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…acacbacked Yes | 8c | 122,903$9,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,905.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…68d1backed Yes | 9c | 121,181$11,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,419.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 60c | 117,293$70,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,639.68 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 72c | 115,439$83,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,092.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 11c | 115,316$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…0252backed No | 67c | 115,000$76,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,102.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 22c | 113,871$24,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,620.75 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 112,515$3,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,514.34 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…4ca9backed Yes | 6c | 111,852$6,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,639.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…6789backed Yes | 8c | 111,600$8,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,928 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 39c | 111,059$43,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,533.68 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…ce86backed Yes | 5c | 110,000$5,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,491.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 63c | 108,223$67,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,323.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 16c | 107,206$17,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,003.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 23c | 107,167$24,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,443.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 15c | 106,838$16,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,197.52 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…530cbacked Yes | 5c | 106,515$4,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,852.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 7c | 105,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,349.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 102,526$10,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,228.24 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1b…0d9ebacked Yes | 4c | 102,360$4,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.