TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5975…6820

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
28
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 51 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,192Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT+724.3%+$8,634.17
Will England win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$4,778.96
Will the Netherlands win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$905Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2024, EDT+96.4%+$872.45
Will France win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,975Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,975
Will Belgium win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,460Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2024, EDT+25.8%+$891.42
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Finalbacked Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$1,993.38
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,800
Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich: Who will advance?backed Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2024, EDT+49.3%+$2,462.52
PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund: Who will advance?backed PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,900
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,000
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+37%+$17.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$5,100
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+100%+$999.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,215.5
Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2024, EDT+40.8%+$408.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,376Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+35.8%+$1,925.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$28,969Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+28.9%+$8,371.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$182.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked Inter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,128.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,445Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,444.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.