TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,918,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,886,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,918,598 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d3c…49ecbacked No2c61,573$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No10c57,204$5,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,904.871442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes74c51,665$38,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,579.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-66.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No1c50,769$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.5760%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc376…f8abbacked No1c35,378$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No24c35,190$8,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,328.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No16c32,443$5,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,034.581020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No20c29,169$5,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,732.355219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes75c24,914$18,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,241.172941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No4c23,521$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.081540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x969c…3dd1backed No2c21,709$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No8c21,324$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.771931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No28c20,037$5,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,526.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd59f…b3dfbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb980…62e6backed No22c16,839$3,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,671.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No14c16,200$2,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.585121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No15c14,383$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.663828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes63c13,223$8,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,839.263132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes63c13,160$8,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,840.751520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked Yes76c13,133$10,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No3c11,711$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.182454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No1c11,006$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c10,856$3,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.628013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No28c10,850$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.331827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes78c10,381$8,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.281275%9 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes65c10,279$6,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,597.311741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes61c10,240$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,039.77988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+52.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ea1…1917backed No1c10,208$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b8…b998backed No36c10,011$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No1c10,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf580…7fadbacked No12c9,900$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes70c9,822$6,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked No24c9,100$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…24b4backed No1c8,964$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes73c8,841$6,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,374.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x654a…ce43backed No31c8,641$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No9c7,875$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.565014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e62…ef0fbacked No19c7,651$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes76c7,560$5,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e01…17b3backed No1c7,556$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5975…6820backed Yes74c7,301$5,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes70c7,244$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.55633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes70c6,928$4,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked No36c6,863$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No23c6,757$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes77c6,520$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa268…d60bbacked Yes78c6,425$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.97862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+95%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No29c6,366$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes68c5,834$3,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.51683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+54.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2110…6181backed No30c5,619$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…7f51backed No9c5,595$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457a…cffcbacked No0c5,558$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes79c5,539$4,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.945100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed No2c5,400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x239d…f8a5backed No31c5,374$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bcf…510ebacked No24c5,327$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No26c5,128$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.834316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0add…0464backed No25c5,088$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No0c5,057$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x943c…1d17backed Yes73c4,893$3,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0bc…b904backed No3c4,833$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes68c4,683$3,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce8…d1fabacked No22c4,654$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No1c4,587$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed No0c4,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3d…3bbbbacked No2c4,352$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes64c4,318$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x318e…59fdbacked No1c4,274$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed No29c4,094$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d0…d22ebacked No12c4,061$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No5c3,913$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.11384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick54cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1489…3577backed No29c3,888$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes69c3,849$2,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.02580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b8…479cbacked No0c3,808$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb675…3d65backed Yes61c3,806$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.891457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked No26c3,800$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No22c3,759$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.253321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No6c3,755$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.011030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb5…ed3bbacked No30c3,700$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No28c3,632$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed No27c3,604$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No22c3,600$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.01812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No14c3,600$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.291216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No27c3,552$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8b…7e0abacked No31c3,524$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f4…3d96backed No23c3,487$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed No18c3,448$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes69c3,300$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf066…f6f4backed No3c3,297$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes76c3,294$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.241978.9%15 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick50cpaid+81.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcaef…162cbacked No3c3,238$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed No1c3,222$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c3,200$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.987537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x502e…4641backed No32c3,157$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes64c3,131$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.69560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed No1c3,111$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb200…f15ebacked No27c2,963$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35a…c452backed No25c2,910$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.3616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes47c2,799$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.446836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.