Premier League · resolved market
Will the Netherlands win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f4048eabb396fc8cec25afc5352a2dda4ceb9cb4bd0c28d1f26af5070cb836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed No | 51c | 1,777$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 50c | 403.82$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…14a4backed Yes | 31c | 330$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 57c | 232.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked No | 52c | 221.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 52c | 199.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 51c | 184.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked No | 70c | 170.5$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…76b5backed Yes | 39c | 161.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 47c | 159.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…9a3cbacked No | 54c | 159.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 48c | 153.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a3…6217backed Yes | 47c | 147.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 48c | 145.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…d714backed No | 52c | 129.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked No | 51c | 116.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 114.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…0241backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec9…5ff5backed Yes | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 54c | 91.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 50c | 80.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…10dcbacked Yes | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 50c | 70.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 45c | 68.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…d6eabacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked No | 51c | 64.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 48c | 62.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…37f7backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade0…dbacbacked Yes | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…2cf5backed Yes | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 52c | 57.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…7537backed Yes | 23c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 53c | 53.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…e62abacked Yes | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d75…fe41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefd…b786backed Yes | 23c | 49.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…2cd6backed No | 52c | 47.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…7982backed Yes | 49c | 45.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6eeebacked Yes | 49c | 45.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…8de4backed No | 53c | 44.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…b29ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…6705backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…7af1backed Yes | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdd…c6c3backed No | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…8202backed No | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3720…2bc8backed Yes | 48c | 39.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a4a7backed Yes | 48c | 38.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…dd2ebacked Yes | 48c | 38.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…cb7ebacked Yes | 55c | 37.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…9328backed No | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…d42dbacked No | 52c | 36.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4301backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…5136backed Yes | 48c | 35.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59d…3872backed Yes | 49c | 33.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…98b8backed No | 54c | 31.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…441ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…7099backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d53…76c3backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd64…122bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…9638backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Netherlands win?this page
- Will Austria win?Yes won
- Will the match be a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.