Premier League · resolved market
Will Austria win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd277b57a22eee2b73264a876abc5eca50950ff160e4b905ac4e8f537ef128d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 24c | 100,000$24,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,000.37 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 76c | 27,283$20,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,734.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 76c | 13,158$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 76c | 11,500$8,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,740 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…bd2ebacked No | 76c | 3,737$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734d…b810backed No | 76c | 2,097$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…ef25backed No | 76c | 1,943$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…aa97backed No | 76c | 1,866$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 75c | 1,672$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.7 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,505$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.54 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,206$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.56 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 22c | 1,111$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.58 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 17c | 672.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.4 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 76c | 506.58$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 76c | 396.32$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…9a3cbacked Yes | 31c | 286.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…5297backed Yes | 21c | 233.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed No | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4952…4d90backed Yes | 25c | 154.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +113%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 17c | 139.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…d714backed No | 76c | 122$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 65c | 107.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…55ccbacked Yes | 49c | 102.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc04…d31fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…28debacked Yes | 25c | 95.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…4a48backed No | 78c | 93.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…c707backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +315.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2207backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe247…da41backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…93c4backed Yes | 25c | 65.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49a…300ebacked Yes | 25c | 53.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be1…7120backed No | 76c | 45.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…1d5bbacked No | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…3efabacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…a4efbacked No | 76c | 35.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e8…3375backed Yes | 52c | 34.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49cd…7a1fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…0fbcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadac…c770backed Yes | 66c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austria win?this page
- Will the Netherlands win?No won
- Will the match be a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.