Premier League · resolved market
Will the match be a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135865901841ec415ca2f621c8ce58d4aab20fecfc17186c40bcbd500cccdfc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,457$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 69c | 1,289$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.45 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 67c | 188.41$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…1716backed Yes | 29c | 155$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…9a48backed Yes | 31c | 126.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…d714backed No | 70c | 115.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 43c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…8686backed Yes | 34c | 60.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…76b5backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…7537backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47f…99a1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…37b8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…0b98backed Yes | 74c | 48.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…ba0abacked No | 71c | 47.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…5cf0backed Yes | 29c | 47.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…56b3backed Yes | 29c | 45.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…b15dbacked Yes | 32c | 38.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0a…1eccbacked No | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…7fd6backed No | 71c | 36.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3b…0aa1backed Yes | 30c | 34.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbf…3171backed No | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2207backed Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…bcf6backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 70c | 24.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e8…3375backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match be a draw?this page
- Will Austria win?Yes won
- Will the Netherlands win?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.