TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe1e2…9629

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$431Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$431
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.29
Will Eberechi Eze score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$45.72
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+43%+$295.59
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+136.7%+$34.17
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.08
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$22.5
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$4.5
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$10.93
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+186.9%+$56.07
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$71.31
All 22 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.94
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$60
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,106.56
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,962Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$932.02
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.45
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$42.5
Starmer out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$143.92
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+370.1%+$1,895.11
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+396%+$222.19
Reform wins the most seats in next UK election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$146
Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$140.83
All 16 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$24.5
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$660.59
Chris Eubank Jr. vs Conor Benn Nov 15, 2025backed Eubank Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Will Jake Paul fight KSI next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.09
Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+84.5%+$80.13
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+75.4%+$64.5
Will Ring of Fire have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$96
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.6%+$16.3
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$27.03
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$13.35
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$13.56
Will Trump cut military spending?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+50.9%+$50.66
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$79.91
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Trump convicted of felony before Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$77.82
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+194.1%+$38.82
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.79
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT+127.3%+$63.64
Will Iran President Raisi be found today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$81.61
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+198.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+181.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT+85.6%+$44.53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.