TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$861,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$872,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $861,569 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9b4…64edbacked No2c45,278$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.86230%0 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb6…5917backed No5c43,026$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c8…d3e7backed No16c39,884$6,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,380.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc5…61fdbacked No15c22,208$3,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,404.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No5c18,416$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.372817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0ed…710ebacked No4c16,318$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No14c16,018$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.452015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-76.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed No2c13,471$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.83224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No0c11,332$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+152%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed No7c10,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked No8c9,842$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.4690%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3d6…1c97backed No5c9,642$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…5333backed No4c9,628$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No4c9,467$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed No2c9,250$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.04147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ed…dc1abacked No5c8,998$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c8,540$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.36905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaec…665bbacked No3c7,800$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1870%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee6b…7f8dbacked No26c7,105$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…741bbacked No12c6,876$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ef…2254backed No16c6,708$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x948c…42eebacked No3c6,192$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8025…fce2backed No18c6,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed No9c5,350$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee2e…f5d6backed No21c4,724$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540b…e4e7backed No20c4,515$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.0250%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed No10c4,506$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a38…67a9backed No19c4,292$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7056…b961backed No5c4,190$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No2c3,971$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.395922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No18c3,893$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.831353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc7…7ca8backed No4c3,880$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35b…fd83backed No21c3,802$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8101915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No4c3,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked No3c3,376$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes80c3,284$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.871758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x463a…741abacked No5c3,268$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed17…5b41backed No18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No5c2,840$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1114121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf8…59fdbacked No10c2,675$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked No11c2,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3921…dbbebacked No4c2,564$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6548…4ec4backed No4c2,488$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes77c2,400$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5487356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x9864…5f30backed No4c2,347$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…1857backed No23c2,311$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f07…b421backed Yes79c2,110$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.79633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed No25c2,087$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7454…e85bbacked No10c2,003$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed No18c1,915$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed No18c1,755$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329a…1185backed No18c1,750$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No1c1,723$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4941736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6316…be54backed No6c1,666$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe582…8836backed No4c1,637$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No11c1,616$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…e7eebacked No10c1,583$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.34540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x923c…d9e0backed Yes77c1,558$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+119.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x46de…1162backed No1c1,550$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96f…3ea0backed No19c1,527$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes79c1,494$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.163551.4%18 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+50.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x00cf…06f1backed No3c1,480$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d04…bfd6backed No19c1,467$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c1…ff81backed No21c1,426$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed No30c1,316$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40090%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed Yes80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed No17c1,200$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa194…971fbacked No21c1,182$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab5…9ac3backed No4c1,175$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No13c1,153$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.817821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1173…4438backed No16c1,135$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc39…d0a8backed No18c1,112$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31d…eca9backed No4c1,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70e…1eeabacked No6c1,098$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a1…0ff3backed No19c1,070$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed9…b98cbacked No20c1,069$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71df…2e52backed No22c1,046$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked No16c1,003$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ec…eaacbacked No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed No4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ac…df04backed No18c999.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a95…7274backed No13c999.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No23c999.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked Yes78c999.99$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2203100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba21…08fbbacked No22c979.75$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb405…ea48backed No6c890.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…1748backed No4c888.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed No15c884$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82fd…48cdbacked No3c856.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked No4c841.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e6…169dbacked No12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb50…2e5abacked No5c788.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3af…9fe8backed No13c765.5$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.551315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No18c764.3$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes78c759.67$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.49366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167f…1f51backed No7c725$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3959…a574backed No16c723.24$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1459…ab65backed No7c715$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-77.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.