Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran President Raisi be found today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59d6bc87353d4209b5b6d7a4d5cd64bebcfb48a00cd2f160317171879fd641b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $315,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 1c | 55,257$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.85 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 8c | 22,692$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.49 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 75c | 18,483$13,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.54 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 0c | 17,925$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 7c | 11,202$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.41 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed No | 1c | 10,083$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 26c | 8,886$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…9b44backed No | 19c | 6,894$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58a…eac4backed No | 13c | 4,880$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…0752backed No | 18c | 4,132$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 31c | 3,560$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.64 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 24c | 3,379$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…3e45backed No | 19c | 3,202$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…1de0backed Yes | 60c | 3,044$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 25c | 2,470$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.65 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…cb31backed No | 1c | 2,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb650…4440backed No | 1c | 2,202$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 35c | 2,098$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 80c | 1,933$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 23c | 1,900$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 28c | 1,871$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.91 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 34c | 1,621$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 23c | 1,424$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 15c | 1,352$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 2c | 1,287$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…6653backed No | 27c | 1,154$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 5c | 1,132$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…cc53backed No | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked No | 21c | 1,012$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…55dcbacked No | 1c | 995$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2aa…4a6cbacked No | 22c | 874.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed No | 21c | 800$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…c72abacked No | 28c | 709.35$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed No | 12c | 685$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed No | 32c | 642.47$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 32c | 617.08$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd6…0ec1backed No | 5c | 596.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 79c | 590.08$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 72c | 490.79$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 37c | 471.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…a669backed No | 5c | 460.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…9a3cbacked No | 28c | 460.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…3726backed No | 23c | 351$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 16c | 311$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…9fa3backed Yes | 76c | 310$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 77c | 268.83$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Yes | 72c | 249.54$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 43c | 235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed No | 30c | 229.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Yes | 55c | 205.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…8e55backed No | 50c | 182.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked No | 30c | 161$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…334fbacked No | 13c | 156.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…49e9backed No | 12c | 132.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…c926backed No | 17c | 130.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…9d66backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…7e88backed No | 56c | 62.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe3…aef9backed No | 41c | 61.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Yes | 66c | 60.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed No | 45c | 55.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…73e1backed No | 20c | 54.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b2…e102backed No | 36c | 53.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…65fabacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…25bbbacked No | 42c | 43.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…780fbacked No | 33c | 40.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…7309backed No | 29c | 38.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e63…eb82backed Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b87…2eb9backed Yes | 67c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…ba8abacked Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.