Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b15b055bb715f730bf0c82ae121c4bfb550405667b3a0c9362500ef124f353

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,158 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	53c	902.34$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.38	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked No	51c	550$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	54c	312.18$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.02	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	44c	253.19$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.71	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	68c	192.6$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.85	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No	55c	161.4$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.4	624	52.7%329 W · 295 L	+10.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	68c	155.88$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	46c	118.17$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.16	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes	66c	99.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.99	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	50c	99.98$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.98	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	19c	94.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e06…4664backed No	34c	90$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Yes	66c	90$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6d…f13bbacked No	76c	88.58$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.56	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x887f…7289backed Yes	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e2…9629backed No	35c	86.07$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.07	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	57c	74.16$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.27	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	44c	66.13$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.95	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4359…1260backed Yes	31c	65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	88	64.8%57 W · 31 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	32c	54$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	32c	46.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.88	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes	44c	46.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0e…d3b2backed Yes	52c	45.78$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3973…aff1backed Yes	56c	44.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	55c	42.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No	30c	41$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.7	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+6.4wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b60…85e0backed Yes	60c	41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	83	41%34 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	33c	41$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.47	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	44c	40.09$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	60c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes	55c	36.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	97	23.7%23 W · 74 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No	49c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.85	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	40c	30.54$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.32	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked No	54c	22.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.52	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed Yes	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	75	52%39 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…5130backed No	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7114…6432backed No	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+5.0wins	+0.19per pick	34cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event