Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06096c5118545dae4560027665fb2bff996a2b88026acf1eb50317a3f4930c2d

Rebuilt 27 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,939
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,939 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8193…8c82backed Yes	38c	469.95$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.73	108	41.7%45 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	41c	400$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236	249	54.2%135 W · 114 L	+40.3wins	+0.16per pick	38cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes	42c	287.55$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.56	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	68c	260$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.1	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	58c	221.45$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.68	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	64c	210.98$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.32	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e69…a4b5backed Yes	49c	203.95$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.95	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No	60c	203.15$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.89	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x095b…25cabacked No	59c	200$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c26…1694backed Yes	31c	164.94$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.94	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed No	69c	156.76$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.2	145	34.5%50 W · 95 L	-11.4wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	36c	145.99$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.12	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed No	60c	133.17$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.24	290	30.7%89 W · 201 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	38c	107.17$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.98	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	31c	100$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63f…793cbacked Yes	30c	90$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.7	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes	33c	85$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.2	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a91…3392backed Yes	30c	80$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+3.3wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	59c	78.37$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.41	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	39c	70$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	21c	70$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.3	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	57c	66.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes	32c	60$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd8e…435cbacked Yes	37c	57.57$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.47	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.2wins	+0.24per pick	53cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8647…d870backed No	55c	52.82$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	73c	51$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.23	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No	62c	50.57$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.35	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0855…ae26backed No	63c	50$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked No	66c	49.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes	34c	49.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.99	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No	56c	49.51$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	41c	46.17$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.24	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	34c	43.95$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes	37c	43.21$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.22	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No	58c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No	65c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes	32c	37.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+3.7wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+47.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes	31c	37.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.88	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	41c	35$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1662…9b28backed Yes	43c	32.42$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.48	38	68.4%26 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	69cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked No	71c	31.3$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a0…2f95backed No	47c	28.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd5…5551backed No	44c	28.55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.5wins	+0.32per pick	50cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes	42c	26.16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.29	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No	70c	20.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-11.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9fbd…d0e7backed No	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa586…a14dbacked No	73c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.48per pick	73cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x832b…5c91backed No	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d43…80acbacked No	79c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.18per pick	65cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed No	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…c50bbacked No	66c	16.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd677…aa0ebacked No	65c	16.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event