Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d6e586e7a6597599e14486e483d2a68d1a1732652852abd592f3d473cafacc

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,586 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	54c	378$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.2	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	48c	243.39$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.83	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked No	54c	183$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.18	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes	46c	160$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No	65c	158.5$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	46c	116.27$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.91	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed Yes	42c	99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.58	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf51…b295backed No	48c	81.89$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.18	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	48c	80.56$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.78	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e2…9629backed No	64c	62.5$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	64c	57.9$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked No	55c	55.56$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	48c	55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	35c	53.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.87	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	36c	52.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	59c	50.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	52c	44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.88	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No	60c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…8725backed Yes	45c	38.41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	40c	35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	50c	30.56$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.28	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb326…d18bbacked Yes	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	58c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed No	60c	18.39$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.35	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Denzel Dumfries score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event