Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f88a360914b7100ce8c7a48a4150e103c8de070068a12918bdf3b235e1825c

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,183 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	70c	500$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.31	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	9c	499.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…3e56backed Yes	3c	355.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03be…e99cbacked Yes	3c	349.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-49%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	3c	292.31$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	36c	276.75$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x095b…25cabacked Yes	18c	184.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92fa…4461backed No	55c	182.55$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.55	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	15c	169.89$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7083…53ecbacked Yes	36c	140.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	35c	127.1$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.71	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes	34c	121.54$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.32	113	54%61 W · 52 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	29c	100$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x604e…f1cdbacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	20c	88.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No	65c	77$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No	64c	70.28$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	23c	70$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes	45c	65.9$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.66	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c60…5c52backed No	71c	60.46$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.41	44	68.2%30 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb3…60d2backed Yes	31c	60$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked No	64c	56$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.16	173	40.5%70 W · 103 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	75c	53$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.14	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	77c	44.31$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27d…f58cbacked Yes	23c	43.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf99d…f867backed No	55c	39.99$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.05	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7fd…9963backed Yes	75c	38.67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No	80c	36.86$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.37	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe4…2a32backed No	56c	35.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.57	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes	45c	26.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	43c	24.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed No	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	79c	16.86$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.54	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783e…5a19backed No	70c	14.36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.26	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event